-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
595
FXUS62 KFFC 241726
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
126 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

At a glance:

    - Unseasonable heat remains

    - Dry air continues to hamper more widespread rain chances

Showers and embedded thunderstorms associated with our
southeastward-advancing cold front reinvigorated upon reaching a
pocket of meager instability across central Georgia, this despite
interacting with a stout dry layer depicted well above 700mb on
yesterday evening`s 24/00Z sounding. Not expecting any storms to
reach severe criteria, but will be capable of lowering visibility
and creating wet roads for the morning commute. Low- end (15-30%)
rain chances will continue to filter southeastward through the
afternoon today as lift along the leading edge of the front kicks
up an isolated updraft, but expect dry air to win out on the
larger scale. All of this to say, the front and its associated
scant rain chances are unlikely to bring broader scale relief from
our multi-day heat event. Highs this afternoon look to be just a
tick lower than yesterday, but are still forecast to max out in
the mid-to-upper 90s.

Moving into Tuesday, frontal progression looks to stall out across
the Florida panhandle, and with even drier air overspreading north
and central Georgia on its heels, expect any chances for afternoon
thunderstorms to be focused to the south and east of Macon -- in
closest proximity to residual frontal forcing. Aloft, a relative
lull in our presiding wave pattern -- with exiting troughing
resulting in weakly northwesterly flow at the mid-levels -- which
will serve to reinforce mostly dry conditions. Unhampered warming
under mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to rebound into the
upper-90s areawide (apart from northeast Georgia, relegated to the
mid-80s to near 90). What continues to be our saving grace will be
strong mixing and climatologically-low afternoon dewpoints (in the
upper-50s to lower-60s; between the 10th and 25th percentile per
SPC`s Sounding Climatology). As a result, peak afternoon heat index
values will continue to be within a degree or two of actual
temperatures, and perhaps even slightly "cooler" than actual highs
on Tuesday.

96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

With a 500 mb ridge over much of the eastern CONUS and a weak
surface high centered to the north of Georgia, conditions will be
relatively dry to begin the long term period on Tuesday evening.
Temperatures will still be in the upper 80s to low 90s by 8-9 PM,
and will be slow to cool through the night, dropping below 80
degrees after midnight. By early Wednesday morning, a longwave
trough is expected to extend into the Mississippi River Valley and
move eastward towards Georgia over the course of the day. As low
level flow gains a southerly component ahead of the trough, some
moisture return will be possible, first in central Georgia, then
spreading northward. At the same time, Wednesday is shaping up to be
another scorcher, with high temperatures mainly in the upper 90s to
around 100. With increasing dewpoints in portions of east-central
Georgia, heat indices could reach to between 101-105 in this area,
with only slightly lower heat indices to the north and west.

Latest mid-range guidance is coming into better agreement on the
timing at which the aforementioned trough and an associated surface
frontal boundary will advance towards the area. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms ahead of the front are anticipated to spread into
north Georgia by late Wednesday, while scattered diurnally-driven
thunderstorms will meanwhile likely be ongoing in central Georgia.
Precip chances will spread southeastward overnight and into Thursday
as the weakening frontal boundary sinks southward through the
forecast area. The front is then anticipated to clear the forecast
area to the southeast by late Thursday night. Southerly low-level
flow will likely return to the area Friday into Saturday, which will
promote increasing dewpoints, hot temperatures, and afternoon
thunderstorms through the weekend.

It will be important to keep an eye on temperatures through the
later parts of the week into the weekend. Even with trending high
temperatures down slightly to account for convective development,
highs are still forecast to range from between 4-8 degrees above
average for late June. Highs are mainly forecast to be in the mid to
upper 90s from Thursday through the end of the period, and heat
indices are forecast to creep up into the triple digits in many
locations, particularly in the southern half of the forecast
area.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

FEW/SCT deck at 5000 ft of cumulus continues to sag southward
behind the rain over central and southern GA. Expecting skies to
become SKC by 22-23z today and continue through tomorrow. Gusts up
to 20 kts are possible this afternoon through about 22-23z before
calming overnight. Winds will also make the switch from NW to NE
(010) ~04-05z overnight.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

High on all elements.

Hernandez
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Athens          69  96  70  97 /   0   0   0  20
Atlanta         72  98  74  98 /   0   0   0  20
Blairsville     61  90  66  90 /   0  10   0  30
Cartersville    65  96  70  97 /   0   0   0  30
Columbus        73 101  74 100 /   0   0   0  30
Gainesville     69  94  72  95 /   0   0   0  20
Macon           71 100  72 100 /   0  10   0  30
Rome            67  98  71  97 /   0   0   0  30
Peachtree City  69  98  71  98 /   0   0   0  20
Vidalia         74 100  75  99 /  20  30  10  50
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...Hernandez