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808
FXUS62 KGSP 160740
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
340 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will gradually build over the region through
much of the week keeping temperatures above normal. There will
be a chance of showers and thunderstorms today and Monday. Then
drier conditions are expected to return Tuesday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 3:15 AM Sunday: An area of sct showers over our NC foothills
and southern NC mtns refuse to go away. With decent amounts of CIN
over the area, we haven`t seen any lightning for several hours and
shouldn`t going forward. Any locations that have gotten rain may see
some fog develop before sunrise as dewpts remain elevated compared
to the past few mornings. However, winds have also remained a bit
more elevated so far this morning so that might prevent some fog
from developing. With the increased cloud cover, lows should remain
about a category above climatology this morning.

Otherwise, expansive upper ridging will continue to build over the
eastern CONUS thru the near-term period with the center of the anti-
cyclone expected to be over the Carolinas for much of the period.
At the sfc, high pressure currently centered over New England will
slide SE and off the coast later today allowing our low-level flow
to become more SELY as the day progresses. This will help moisten
profiles across our western zones and also enhance upslope flow over
the Escarpment. Thus, we should see better coverage of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon/evening compared to the past few days,
especially over the mtns and western Upstate/NE Georgia. However,
mid-level lapse rates still appear meager (at best) for most of our
area, so it`s doubtful that any thunderstorms will become severe,
but a few might warrant an SPS. In addition, they could generate
some heavy downpours. Temperatures should not be quite as warm
today, although highs are still likely to exceed 90 degrees across
most of the Upstate and NE Georgia.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Sunday: The center of a large upper level
anticyclone will drift from the Carolinas to near NYC by 12z
Wednesday. This will place the forecast area on the easterly
flow side of the circulation. Enough moisture will linger for
diurnal convection to form across mainly the mountains Monday,
but severe threat will remain low. The day will start out with some
stratus/stratocu, but should scatter out by the aftn. Overall, temps
will be held to near normal, despite starting out warm. On Tuesday,
dry air rotating in from the NE and subsidence will combine to
preclude deep convection. Temps will be a deg or two above normal,
generally upper 80s Piedmont and mid 80s in the mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 215 AM EDT Sunday: The strong 500 mb anticyclone may reach 600
dam over the mid-Atlantic region by Thursday, resulting oppressive
heat to our north. Subsidence and dry air will result in dry
conditions and above normal temps across the forecast area thru
at least Thursday. Perhaps a few ridge-top showers and general
thunderstorms may form Friday, but the latest guidance has been
trending drier. The one feature to watch is an easterly/tropical
wave that some of the deterministic models form a weak tropical
cyclone from east of FL. This wave is expected to track westward
under the upper high just to our south, but some of that moisture
could brush our area Thursday into Thursday night. The upper high
will weaken and begin to drift south by Saturday, with building
heat and humidity across the region. The mid-level inversion may
weaken enough and combined with good insolation for a return of
typical late June diurnal convection Saturday and Sunday. Highs
will likely be in the mid 90s across the Piedmont and upper 80s
to near 90 in the mountain valleys.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: we`ve still got some lingering patches of
showers over western NC as we head into the overnight. This activity
may impact KAVL for the first few hrs of the taf, so I included a
VCSH for that site. It`s doubtful that the other taf sites will be
impacted. Low-end VFR to MVFR level clouds remain possible in the
predawn hrs, especially near KAVL and KHKY, but I was not confident
enough to go with prevailing restrictions so I kept cigs at 3500 ft.
Also, the low levels still appear too mixed for any substantial fog
development overnight. Otherwise, chances for sct diurnal SHRA/TSRA
will be somewhat better today than the past few days. Still anticipate
coverage being better over the NC mtns and SC Upstate with showers
possibly lingering well into the night and even overnight. Thus, I
included PROB30s for TSRA at KAVL and the Upstate terminals beginning
around 20z. For KCLT and KHKY, I left out any mention of thunder as
it appears less likely over that area. In addition, much of the latest
guidance has lower cigs spreading over the area just as the period ends
at 06z. Thus, I lower cigs at KCLT to MVFR for the last few hours of
the period since they go thru 12z Monday. Otherwise, winds will favor
a SE to NE direction thru the morning (if not VRB at times) and then
favor a SE direction thru the aftn/evening.

Outlook: Moist SELY low-level flow will persist thru Monday, helping
support another round of diurnal SHRA/TSRA. An amplifying upper ridge
is likely to result in mostly dry/VFR daytime conditions Tuesday thru
Thurs, however nocturnal fog/stratus could develop early each morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JPT