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894
FXUS62 KGSP 150542
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
142 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A hot upper ridge will build into the region through the
weekend. The ridge will linger over the Eastern Seaboard through
much of next week keeping temperatures above normal. Isolated
diurnal ridgetop showers and thunderstorms will be possible each
day through Monday. Drier conditions are expected to return Tuesday
into Friday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 1:15 AM Saturday: Other than some sct patches of altocu, we
remain mostly clear with light to calm winds across the area as we
move into the overnight. Overnight temperatures will be mild with
lows in the mid 60s to low 70s outside of the mtns and 60s over
most of the higher terrain.

Otherwise, a weakly forced cold front will reach the NC mtns by
midnight, but not expecting much fanfare outside a increasing the
chance for sct showers as mix-lyr CIN increases. Expect the front
to continue pushing south of the fcst area Saturday as strong high
pressure ridges in from the north and northeast. This pattern will
initiate a low-lvl ELY component which may develop upslope showers
and couple general tstms across the escarpment upslope regions by
the aftn. Otherwise, Saturday looks mostly dry with highs reaching
roughly 90 degrees east of the mtns and mid to upper 80s across the
mtn valleys.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

1) Hot Conditions Continue through the Period

2) Diurnal Showers and Thunderstorms Expected Each Day in the
Mountains

As of 130 PM EDT Friday: Strong upper ridging will continue building
into the Southeast Saturday night, ending up centered over the
Carolinas Sunday into Monday night. At the sfc, high pressure will
gradually track eastward across the Northeast Saturday night before
pushing offshore into the western Atlantic on Sunday. The center of
the sfc high will linger in the western Atlantic while gradually
nudging eastward Sunday night into Monday night. The
southern/southwestern periphery of the sfc high will extend into the
Southeast through the period. Winds will gradually turn S/SE`ly on
Sunday, and will lingering through Monday, allowing for an influx of
Atlantic moisture. Thus, diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances are
expected to increase through the period. Have PoPs ranging from 25%-
40% across the mountains each afternoon. The severe threat looks to
remain low and mainly general thunderstorms are expected each day.
Lows each night will remain around 4-8 degrees above climo. Highs
will remain around 3-6 degrees above climo, with temps rebounding
into the upper 80s/lower 90s in the mountain valleys and east of the
mountains each afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

1) Hot Conditions Continue through the Period

2) Drier Conditions Return through the Period

As of 130 PM EDT Friday: The hot upper anticyclone will linger over
the East Coast through at least Thursday. The GFS and Canadian show
the anticyclone gradually breaking down Thursday night into Friday
while the ECMWF keeps the anticyclone intact. Regardless of how the
anticyclone evolves towards the end of the workweek, hot
temperatures in the upper 80s/lower 90s will continue in the
mountain valleys and east of the mountains through the period. The
sfc high in the western Atlantic will gradually sink southward
through the period, with the southwester/western periphery
continuing to extend into the Southeast. This will allow flow to
turn more E/ESE across the forecast area. Latest global model
guidance continues to generally agree that drier conditions can be
expected Tuesday through Friday. Thus, went with dry conditions
Tuesday into Wednesday area-wide, with PoPs capped to slight chance
(15%-24%) across the mountains Thursday afternoon and Friday
afternoon. Lows will remain around 3-5 degrees above climo, with
highs remaining around 3-6 degrees above climo through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR conditions to continue thru the
06z taf period at all terminals. Mostly clear skies and light to
calm winds will continue thru the overnight and into the morning.
Saturday should be another mostly dry day, with some isolated to
sct showers and maybe a few thunderstorms popping up later in the
day, but more than likely not impacting any taf sites. Otherwise,
another round of cumulus and some higher cirrus is expected by the
afternoon. Winds will pick up modestly from the NE by late morning
and eventually veer to more ELY later tonight. At KAVL, winds will
remain light and VRB thru the afternoon and eventually favor more
of a SE direction this evening.

Outlook: Weak high pressure will linger over the area into Sunday
with minimal chances for convection and associated flight restric-
tions. More moist, SLY flow returns by early next week and will
likely bring some increase in shower and thunderstorm activity
each day.
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&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JPT/TW
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JPT