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743
FXUS62 KILM 061355
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
955 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Humidity and storm coverage will increase today before a weak
cold front moves through early Friday. The weekend will bring
mostly dry conditions, with low rain chances returning late
Sunday through next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 10 AM EDT, the bulk of this morning`s activity is now
offshore, sans only a couple of brief showers or drizzle in the
Cape Fear region. Debris clouds have taken over the area closer
to the coast, but clearing along and west of I-95 will gradually
push eastward. Still on track for showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Only made minor changes to
the hourly temperature, dewpoint, and rain chance trends.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Showers and a few rumbles of thunder associated with a weak
shortwave will continue prior to sunrise. As these showers and the
perturbation aloft move offshore skies will become mostly clear with
hot and humid conditions. Highs in the lower 90s are expected this
afternoon which will likely give way to scattered thunderstorms this
ahead of a cold front. Increasing winds ahead of the front will lead
to max afternoon gusts up to 20 mph inland and up to 25 mph along
the coast.

Convective initiation along a cold front this afternoon is likely to
result in scattered to widespread thunderstorms. The best chance for
higher PoP appears to be across NC with more cellular convection
over SC. Not much in the way of shear this afternoon, but it is
possible that these showers mold into some sort of linear feature
during the late afternoon and early evening. SPC has put the area in
a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms. The main threat
with these storms is damaging wind gusts. This threat would increase
in the event that a linear feature develops.

Showers gradually push offshore overnight. Light winds and wet soils
behind the front could lead to the development of patchy fog prior
to sunrise Friday. Lows in the low and mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A front will move off the coast early Friday, resulting in a
mainly dry and less humid period. It should be noted there is a
small chance of showers or a thunderstorm Friday before
dewpoints fall more significantly in the afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, fair weather is expected through this period. Highs
both days will reach the upper 80s to around 90 with lows in the
low to mid 60s Friday night and mid to upper 60s Saturday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An approaching front will bring increasing clouds and a chance
of showers and thunderstorms by Sunday night. The front may
linger near the area for much of next week, resulting in a
chance for showers and storms each day, mainly in the afternoon
and evening as is typical of summer.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers near the coast this morning will gradually push
offshore and dissipate over the next couple of hours. MVFR CIGs
and VIS are possible for brief periods. S-SW winds increase
today ahead of a cold front. Gusts up to 25 knots are possible
with slightly higher gusts possible near the coast where winds
will be more southerly. Better coverage of showers and storms
expected this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Thunder and IFR
likely for all terminals with the best chance along the coast
after 23Z. Low clouds or fog expected behind the front overnight
into Friday morning, low confidence on timing and extent.

Extended Outlook... Showers/thunderstorms will be a little more
widespread Thursday night ahead of a front. VFR expected Friday
and Saturday. Restrictions possible in isolated/scattered
showers and storms late Sunday into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight...Winds increase ahead of a cold front today.
Southerly winds 15-20 knots could gust up to 25 knots at times
this afternoon. The strongest winds will be likely closer to the
coast. During the passage of the cold front this evening,
periodic gusts to around 25 knots are possible. Conditions
should remain below SCA thresholds. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms throughout the day will increase in coverage
tonight.

Friday through Monday...Expect SW winds of 10 to 15 KT Friday to
become N to NW 10 KT or less Friday night int Saturday and veer
to the SW by Sat night. Speeds may briefly increase to around
15 KT Sunday night as a front works into the area. By Monday,
speeds of 10 KT or less are expected but wind directions will
likely vary as the frontal position oscillates in response to
small scale effects like the sea breeze. Seas will generally be
4 ft or less. No flags this period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...IGB
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...21
MARINE...ILM