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857
FXUS61 KILN 240558
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
158 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A wave of low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms to
the Ohio Valley tonight and Tuesday. Drier weather is expected
for Wednesday through Thursday before a tropical system provides
a chance of precipitation late this week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 
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Recent radar returns
indicate a band of light showers moving through the region. This
band continues to lose intensity as it travels farther east.
We`ll go through a brief lull in precipitation for the next few
hours before another wave of precipitation pushes into the
region shortly before sunrise.

Right now, forecast soundings indicate some elevated
instability should be present with this next wave, particularly
south of I-70, so have included thunder in the grids for most
areas. However, keep in mind that even areas without thunder
will likely see some heavier downpours during the 5-9AM period,
potentially creating a messy rush hour. If driving in the rain,
be sure to have your headlights on and leave some extra
stopping distance!

Previous discussion--> Low pressure tracking to Illinois
tonight will push a band of lift and moisture to the ILN area.
This will bring categorical showers and isolated thunderstorms
to Western locations by 6 am, with a chance for showers and
storms farther east. Insulating cloud cover and a humid airmass
will help keep low temperatures up in the 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure tracks across Indiana on Tuesday, reaching
Northern Ohio Tuesday evening. Showers and thunderstorms
developing in deep moisture and lift will overspread the ILN
area. In addition to much-needed rainfall, severe threat will
exist from an environment containing ample instability under
potent winds aloft. Damaging straight line winds appear to be
the main threat, while isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out,
especially in northern locations closer to the low center. As
the low moves northeast Tuesday night, showers and storms will
diminish from northwest to southeast.

Highs ranging from the mid 70s northwest to the low 80s
south and southeast will be followed by lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Higher precipitation chances on Wednesday will be focused across far
southeastern portions of the forecast area.  Precipitation chances
Thursday through the remainder of the long term will be highly
dependent on the tropical system south of the region.  Have at least
some precipitation chances in most of this time period, however as
models come into better agreement precipitation chances will need to
be fine tuned.  Breezy conditions will also be possible, especially
on Friday as the system nears the region.  With cloud cover
temperatures will be in the middle 70s to lower 80s for highs during
the long term.  Low temperatures will generally be in the upper 50s
to middle 60s

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Weather impacts to aviation will come in two parts during the
TAF period today. First, early this morning, a mid-level
disturbance will bring a swath of showers with perhaps a few
rumbles of thunder to most of the region...with a focus on the
Cincinnati terminals. Because of the time of day, will likely
see low MVFR ceilings along with visibility restrictions during
this precipitation.

Second, after a brief lull, a surface wave of low pressure will
force another period of scattered to numerous showers and storms
during the afternoon hours. A few of these storms could be
strong, so will need to watch for gusty wind potential during
the convection as we hone in on timing through future TAF
updates.

Outside of storms, the wind will veer from southeasterly early
to southerly this afternoon. Could see a few gusts in the 15-20
knot range this afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Wednesday.
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&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...CA/Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...