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840
FXUS62 KMHX 160507
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
107 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Back door cold front will continue to push offshore tonight.
High pressure dominates the rest of the weekend into next week
resulting in dry conditions and above average temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 10 PM Sat...Backdoor cold front will continue to push off
the coast tonight as high pressure builds in. A few isolated
showers continue over the southern coastal plain late this
evening, which seem to be quickly weakening. Drier air will grad
filter in overnight and expect pleasant temps with clearing
skies and light winds, allowing lows to drop back to the 60-65
range inland, to upper 60s to near 70 for beaches. Very patchy
fog will be possible, though expect best chances to remain north
of the Albemarle Sound.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM Saturday...Extended period of strong ridging
begins Sunday, keeping us dry, warm, and clear. Highs near 90
inland, low-mid 80s for beaches, but Tds in the 50s and low 60s
will result in more pleasant apparent temperatures. Easterly
flow as the high builds to our north will help push the sea
breeze further inland in the afternoon and evening, but a dry
atmospheric column will inhibit any shower formation along the
sea breeze.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...

Key Points:
- Extended period of warm, dry weather through next week

Sunday night - Tuesday...Strong ridging will build over the
eastern US through mid-week, which will bring several days of
warm, dry weather for ENC. Although temps will still be plenty
warm each day (low 90s coastal plain, mid 80s OBX), onshore
easterly flow will work in our favor to keep us from even hotter
temps.

Wednesday - Friday...There are still notable differences in the long
range models, but the consensus is that an upper level low will
develop east of the Bahamas and move west towards the Gulf of
Mexico. In addition, surface troughing will develop across ENC on
Wednesday and stick around through the end of the work week. PoPs
remain below mentionable until Thursday, however, given the lack of
moisture in the column. Confidence in precipitation for coastal
communities is not high enough to go greater than slight chance at
this time.

This extended period of warm, dry weather will also present
increased fire weather concerns through the week with afternoon
minimum RHs dipping to the mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 1 AM Sun...Pred VFR through the period. Overnight, winds
will be light and skies will be mostly clear as high pressure
builds over ENC. Widespread fog is not expected given the lack
of moisture, but the best chance at patchy fog is near PGV or
in areas that received any rainfall yesterday. Today, winds
will be easterly at 5-10 kt with few high clouds.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...VFR conditions expected through the
period with high pressure remaining dominant through the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 10 PM Sat...Latest obs show NE-E winds 10-20 kt with seas
2-4 ft. Backdoor front will continue to push offshore tonight
with NE-E surge grad diminishing to 10-15kt. Seas 3-4 ft, with
some 5 ft possible across the outer central waters the next few
hours. Winds grad decrease to 10-15kts late tonight, veering
throughout the night and becoming ENE`rly for Sunday as the high
pressure builds to our north.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 630 PM Saturday...Sub-SCA through the period with high
pressure in control. Monday-Tuesday: E 5-10 kt and seas 2-4 ft.
Wednesday: E 10-15 kt and seas 2-3 ft (4-5 ft offshore).

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...OJC
MARINE...CQD/OJC/RJ