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501
FXUS62 KMHX 092310
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
710 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front will approach the area this evening, pushing
offshore overnight into Monday with high pressure building in
behind it to start the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
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As of 710 PM Sun...No big changes with eve update. Have delayed
pops a few hours, as main forcing still well west, but
developing showers with iso thunder in the mtns and foothills
will move into E NC towards midnight. Not expecting much in the
way of severe, as instability is quite low.

Prev disc... As of 3 PM Sun...Hot conditions will continue for
the rest of the afternoon as temps climb into the mid 90s across
inland ENC, and remain in the upper 80s to around 90 along the
coast. Heat indices will be generally near the actual temp with
"low" dewpoints continuing inland. Mostly sunny skies will give
way to increasing clouds later this afternoon as shortwave
energy moves in from western NC ahead of the front.

As the cold front and approaching upper level shortwave
intersect near the NC/VA border late this afternoon, some shower
and thunderstorm development is expected, and based on current
guidance this activity should remain north and west of the
forecast area until around 6-7 pm. Thereafter increasing
coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms (30-50%) is
expected early tonight, with the best coverage likely across
the SW coastal plain and then the southern coast (50-60%)
overnight as a MCS-like complex forms to our west and then moves
across the southern coast. Ample shear and good upper level
support would normally point towards the potential for severe
weather with this convection, however a lack of low level
moisture and warm 925 mb temps will greatly inhibit instability
development, so confidence is low on how organized any
convective cells can get this evening and early tonight.

Rain chances will taper early tomorrow morning as the cold
front moves offshore but some lingering showers are expected,
especially along the coast. With clouds and a breeze remaining
overnight, temps will be muggy and mild and remain mostly in the
upper 60s to low 70s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Sun...Though the cold front will be to our south
tomorrow morning, additional shortwave energy rounding the
longwave trough will likely bring another complex of showers and
isolated thunderstorms to the area tomorrow morning. There is
some uncertainty with how far south this complex will track, so
highest confidence in rain will be along the coast (30-40%).
Extensive morning cloud cover and lowering low level thicknesses
will likely lead to below normal temps, with highs only
reaching the upper 70s to perhaps mid 80s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...An upper trough will bring seasonable temps
and occasional showers and thunderstorms Tuesday. High pressure
builds in Wednesday and Thursday bringing drier conditions and
a warming trend. An upper trough pushes across the Mid-Atlantic
late in the week but uncertainty remains with how much Gulf
moisture the system will be able to tap into.

Monday Night through Tuesday night...A positively tilted upper
trough will dig across the Eastern CONUS Tuesday with embedded
shortwave energy moving trough the flow aloft providing
opportunities for additional showers and storms. Temps will be
low to mid 80s Tuesday. In addition, a much drier airmass will
build in with dewpoints dropping in to the mid 50s across the
coastal plain and low to mid 60s along the coast making for
comfortable temps.

Wednesday through Sunday...The upper trough axis pushes
offshore Wednesday with sfc high pressure building in and NW
downslope mid level flow bringing drier countdowns across the
region. Precip chances will be lower but cannot rule out
isolated to widely scattered showers and storms, mainly during
the afternoon and evening hours along the sea breeze. A northern
stream shortwave pushes across the Mid-West and into the Mid-
Atlantic late in the week while and area of low pressure is
progged to develop in the Gulf of Mexico. There is significant
uncertainty whether the northern stream system will be able to
tap into the Gulf moisture and advect it across the Southeast
coast or whether upper ridging over the western Atlantic will
shunt the moisture to our south and west. A warming trend is
expected late week with highs in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday
and lower 90s Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Monday Afternoon/...
As of 710 PM Sun...Expect ceilings to develop this evening and
range between 5000-7000 ft through most of tonight. A round of
showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible overnight,
then again tomorrow but mainly south of the terminals. Still
there will be a threat for some convectively driven reductions
to MVFR or lower, which will need to monitored overnight, and
have mentioned a sct mvfr deck for now.

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Thursday/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
long term but brief periods of sub-VFR possible in showers and
thunderstorms with greatest chance Monday night into Tuesday.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /Through Tomorrow/...
As of 710 PM Sun...Have cancelled SCA`s as winds are below 25 kt
and will remain that way, with only ocnl gusts to 25 expected.

Prev disc...As of 3 PM Sun...Marginal Small Craft conditions
will develop this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front.
SCAs continue for the coastal waters as well as eastern sounds.

Winds this afternoon will continue to increase and become SW
20-25 kts through this evening. Thereafter, a cold front will
push into the northern waters and Albemarle Sound and turn winds
to the N at around 10 kts behind it. The front will push south
through the rest of the coastal waters overnight with winds
strengthening slightly to 10-15 kts. Light northerly flow will
continue tomorrow morning, but eventually onshore flow will
develop in the afternoon with winds becoming E to S at 5-10
kts. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft through tomorrow, but could
briefly bump up to 3-5 ft late this evening during the peak of
the winds.

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Thursday/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Sub SCA conditions expected through the
long term with variable winds around 15 kt or less and seas
around 2-3 ft.
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&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...TL/SGK
MARINE...SK/SGK