-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
212
FXUS64 KMRX 141911
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
311 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Key Messages:

1. Low chance of a thunderstorm in northeast TN and southwest
Virginia to end this evening. Brief strong winds and lightning in
any thunderstorm are the only hazards.

2. Hot and dry weather to continue tomorrow.

Discussion:

Extremely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through
the early evening tonight, and apart from a few lightning flashes
there`s a negligible risk of a severe downburst of wind.
Convection will dissipate tonight with the loss of solar heating.
The upper level ridge that will be influencing our weather for the
foreseeable future is to move to the east over the next 36 hours,
and will become overhead by tomorrow afternoon. Thanks to the
direct overhead presence of the ridge, the subsidence will
intensify and should prevent any convection from forming tomorrow.
Saturday will be similarly hot as today, with temperatures rising
a few degrees above normal and heat indices in the Chattanooga
metro approaching 100F.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Key Messages:

1. Hot afternoon temperatures each day.

2. Mostly dry overall.

Discussion: At the beginning of this period Saturday evening, the
center of the upper ridge will be sliding on top of us to keep
things hot and stifling for Sunday.  At the surface, there will be a
ridge over the area Saturday evening, but the ridge will slide east
for Sunday allowing a return flow of Gulf moisture to head back into
the area.

Over the next few days the upper high swells in strength, but
doesn`t stay centered over us.  However, the ridge is large enough
to be the primary player through next week, with hot conditions and
lower than normal chances for rain.  With regard to the upper ridge,
it swells like crazy--in the models looking at the 5920 meter line
("592") from Sunday at 12z to Tuesday at 18z--it swells from the
high center height Sunday (592)--covering little to no area--to
covering most of the eastern U.S. by the 592 line, with the High
center 596-598 to our northeast.

Temperatures in the blend for these periods look good overall, but
did knock down the dew points for Sunday and Monday as deep mixing
of dry pattern should make readings a little lower.  For Tuesday
through Friday the blend dewpoints looked good as-is. Would think
that as the dryness continues--that the dew points might edge even
lower and the afternoon temps edge even higher next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR to continue at all TAF sites through the period. Light winds
should be predominant, with any afternoon gust limited in time. A
nonzero chance (10%) of a shower or thunderstorm exists through
03z tonight across northeastern TN into VA, however coverage is
too isolated to mention in the TAF at KTRI. Dry weather will
dominate through the period otherwise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  94  72  96 /   0   0   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  69  91  68  94 /  10   0   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       68  91  67  93 /   0   0   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              65  88  66  90 /  10   0   0  10
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wellington
LONG TERM....GM
AVIATION...Wellington