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381
FXUS65 KPUB 142109
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
309 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Strong to severe storms are expected across the eastern plains through
  this evening, with large hail and damaging winds the main
  threats.

- Warming trend begins Saturday, with isolated thunderstorms
  possible in the afternoon.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 305 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Latest radar imagery showing showers and thunderstorms increasing
across the eastern plains, as rain with isolated thunderstorms
continues across the mountains and mountain valleys. This is in
response to a deep upper trough rapidly approaching, and as
conditions have become more unstable across southern Colorado this
afternoon. Expect the coverage of the showers and storms across the
mountain and mountain valleys to lower through the afternoon as the
forcing shifts east, with the main focus for development expected
across the plains where strong to severe storms are likely.

Once again, expect the severe risk across the plains to quickly ramp
up this afternoon in advance of this upper trough. While dewpoints
have lowered this afternoon for areas along and west of the I-25
corridor, areas to the east have observed dew points hold steady or
even rise. This was due to the early morning precip and cloud cover,
with outflow reinforced by east southeast winds helping to advect
upper 50s to low 60s dew points across the plains. This moisture
along with steep lapse rates is yielding CAPE values up to around
3000 j/kg at this time, with the highest values along and east of a
Trinidad to La Junta line. Shear hasn`t been overly high today but
as this trough shifts east, will see some increases with values of
30-40kt possible across the eastern plains.

While the risk for severe storms remains for the I-25 corridor,
think this window will be closing over the next couple of hours as
drier air filters in. During this time though, hail to around an
inch and 60 mph wind gusts will be possible. East of the I-25
corridor, expect rapidly intensifying storms as they move into the
higher moisture and instability. In these locations, expect hail up
to 2 inches and wind gusts up to around 70 mph. This will be tied to
more isolated development this afternoon, but it`s quite possible
these storms grow into more clusters. Large hail will remain
possible this afternoon and evening, but think the wind risk could
become higher with isolated higher gusts above 70 mph not out of the
question.

Given the speed of the upper forcing and drying, storms should be
exiting the area by mid evening. As we remain in cyclonic flow aloft,
think isolated showers will remain possible. Conditions continue to
dry out while warming on Saturday, with above normal temperatures
returning and with coverage of showers and storms significantly
lowering. Think the risk of any severe storms is low tomorrow, but
can`t rule out an isolated stronger storm over the far southeast
plains in the afternoon where the moisture and instability may
reside.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Issued at 305 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Sunday
As the upper level low moves away from our CWA overnight Saturday
into Sunday, we transition to more of a southwesterly pattern.
Additional moisture is expected to be advected into Colorado. With
elevated areas of CAPE (>1000 J/kg) and high dewpoints in the
extreme eastern portion of the CWA, isolated-scattered
showers/thunderstorm development is possible. Main concern would be
small hail with stronger storms that develop. Otherwise, the rest of
the CWA will remain hot and dry with daytime temperatures in the
high 90s to low 100s possible.

Monday - Tuesday Hot temperatures with southwesterly flow will
continue for the majority of the CWA. Daytime temperatures will
again reach upper 90s to low 100s. Meteorological fire weather
conditions will be possible over the eastern plains each afternoon,
but at this time fuels are largely too green to warrant any
highlights. Will continue to monitor for curing fuels.

Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday the southwesterly flow continues
with several shortwaves entering the region. Expect precipitation to
develop early Wednesday morning in the northern portion of the CWA,
with slightly more active conditions for around mid-week.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
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Issued at 305 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Main forecast concerns are strong to severe thunderstorms with
strong westerly winds and large hail through mid to late
afternoon at all sites, especially COS and PUB. Latest radar
imagery is showing some light rain development but anticipate
that to change rather quickly as thunderstorm development will
ramp up through midday. Expect showers and storms to initially
impact ALS here at the start of the period, with this
development then pushing east northeast across PUB and COS
through mid afternoon. Lighter winds out ahead of this
development will then quickly shift to a westerly component,
while also quickly increasing. Have maintained the same speeds
and gusts during this time, but did add a westerly direction.
Also no big change to the vis, with MVFR and IFR conditions
still appearing likely. Should see these showers and storms
shift to the east by late afternoon and early evening, though a
few additional showers may be possible at COS. VFR conditions
and dry weather return this evening through Saturday morning,
along with lighter and more diurnally driven winds.
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&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ