-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
774
FXUS65 KABQ 120244 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
844 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 841 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Convection from late this afternoon forced a strong outflow
boundary southwest thru gaps in the central mt chain with better
lift and higher moisture. This forcing along with sufficient mid
level moisture and orographics has allowed showers and storms to
develop farther west into central NM than 12Z/18Z guidance. PoPs
were raised along the central mt chain to reflect better precip
chances and higher rainfall totals.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 238 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The recent warming trend will continue through Thursday, when high
temperatures will climax around 5 to 13 degrees above 1991-2020
averages. It will feel very hot Thursday with high temperatures
reaching near and above 100 degrees in many lower elevation
locations, including Farmington, Albuquerque, Espanola, Socorro,
and from Conchas and Tucumcari southward across the eastern
plains. Showers and thunderstorms look to become widespread again
Friday and Friday night as a storm system crosses from the
southwest. Many locations along and east of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains will probably accumulate up to a half inch of rain with
locally higher amounts Friday and Friday night. After another
chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly along and east of the
central mountain chain on Saturday, some dryline thunderstorms
will be possible across eastern areas during the afternoon until
sunset on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The upper low is moving slowly eastward across north central TX per
the latest water vapor satellite imagery, while an upper level ridge
builds along the AZ/NM border. Sufficient moisture remains this
afternoon for a round of storms that are focusing over the northern
mountains and will move out over the adjacent highlands and
northeast plains going into the evening hours. Shear and instability
are lacking today, but sufficient for strong thunderstorms capable
of producing nickel size hail and gusty winds. A repeat of low
stratus/fog is likely across the eastern plains overnight, with the
best chances at fog near Clovis and Portales where a Dense Fog
Advisory may become necessary. The upper level ridge will continue
to strengthen through Wednesday night and shift slowly east over the
area bringing a warming trend with above normal temperatures. Highs
on Wednesday will be 5-10 degrees above normal, but below Heat
Advisory threshold. PWATs will tend down through Wednesday night
from west to east across the area due to drying associated with
subsidence from the building upper high. Wednesday`s crop will have
more instability to work with given the added surface heating, but
less moisture which will limit coverage and tilt impacts toward
strong/erratic wind gusts vs hail or heavy rain. Any convection that
develops west of the central mountain chain Wedesday will definitely
be on the drier side.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

With a ~596 DAM high pressure system crossing the forecast area
from the west, the warming trend will climax Thursday around 5 to
13 degrees above 1991-2020 averages. Enough low level moisture
may linger for a slight chance of gusty virga showers and dry
thunderstorms over and just east of the south central mountains
Thursday afternoon, with gusty virga showers along and east of the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains as well. Precipitation chances will
begin to increase over western areas Thursday evening as a low
pressure system begins to move inland over southern CA.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will become widespread again
Friday and Friday night as the low pressure system approaches the
Four Corners from the southwest, then migrates eastward along the
CO/NM border as an open wave. Models have trended drier with the
system, and it now looks like the best chance for 0.10-0.50" of
precipitation will be along and east of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. Strengthening southwests flow aloft ahead of the upper
trough will result in breezy to windy conditions over east central
and northeast areas Friday afternoon. Some trailing shortwaves in
northwest flow aloft may trigger additional showers and
thunderstorms along and east of the central mountain chain on
Saturday afternoon and evening.

Early next week southwest flow aloft will strengthen over the
forecast area as a broad low pressure system moves inland over
the Pacific northwest. This pattern will probably draw the dryline
into eastern areas nightly, then shift it eastward with
atmospheric mixing producing gusty southwest winds each
afternoon. The potential exists for showers and thunderstorms
across a good portion of the eastern plains both Sunday and Monday
afternoon with the best chance over northeast areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 505 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A small cluster of SHRA/TS between Las Vegas and Santa Rosa will
move southeast across I-40 while dissipating thru 03Z. Local IFR
with heavy rain, gusty outflow winds, and small hail is possible.
Farther west, high-based showers and mainly dry storms with gusty
winds will impact the area along the Cont Divide thru sunset. A
convective SIGMET is in place for this entire area thru 7pm with
potential for another issuance if convection continues. Skies
will clear after sunset with light winds expected overnight. A
brief period of gusty canyon winds may develop in the Rio Grande
Valley this evening from the storm outflows across eastern NM. An
area of IFR fog may also redevelop over the Caprock region between
Tucumcari and Clovis before sunrise. Wednesday will be warmer and
drier with isolated high-based SHRA/TS possible along and east of
the central mt chain after 2pm.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Chances for wetting storms continue across north central and
northeast NM today, but will trend down through Thursday as an upper
level high builds over the region and brings the return of hot, dry
and unstable conditions. A Pacific low will approach Friday and move
over the region Friday night, bringing chances for wetting storms to
central and eastern NM. Brief critical fire weather conditions are
still possible Friday afternoon across far western NM, but looking
less likely given the most recent model data. After a brief cool-
down associated with the Pacific low on Friday, temperatures will
warm over the weekend and hot, dry and unstable conditions will
return. Broad west coast troughing will move inland early next week
and bring stronger winds to the region, which may result in a couple
days of critical fire weather conditions across western NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Farmington......................  57  98  58  99 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  45  91  46  95 /   5   0   0   0
Cuba............................  52  91  54  93 /   5   5   0   0
Gallup..........................  46  95  50  96 /   5   0   0   0
El Morro........................  52  91  55  91 /  10   0   0   5
Grants..........................  48  95  53  96 /  10   0   0   5
Quemado.........................  52  93  56  92 /   5   0   0   5
Magdalena.......................  59  93  64  94 /  10   5   0   5
Datil...........................  54  91  61  91 /  10   5   0  10
Reserve.........................  47  97  50  99 /   5   0   0   5
Glenwood........................  62 101  66 103 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  45  85  47  88 /  10  10   0   0
Los Alamos......................  58  89  64  91 /  20  10  10   5
Pecos...........................  52  88  57  91 /  20   5   0   5
Cerro/Questa....................  45  84  48  86 /  20  10   0   5
Red River.......................  43  77  45  81 /  20  20  10   5
Angel Fire......................  38  80  38  85 /  20  10  10   5
Taos............................  47  89  50  93 /  30   5   0   0
Mora............................  48  86  51  91 /  20  10  10   5
Espanola........................  56  96  60  99 /  20   5   0   0
Santa Fe........................  56  90  62  93 /  20   5   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  57  93  60  96 /  20   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  64  95  68  99 /  20   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  63  97  67 101 /  20   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  63  99  66 103 /  20   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  62  97  66 101 /  20   0   0   0
Belen...........................  59 100  62 103 /  20   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  62  98  65 101 /  20   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  59  99  61 102 /  20   0   0   0
Corrales........................  59  98  63 102 /  20   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  59  99  61 102 /  20   0   0   0
Placitas........................  62  95  66  97 /  20   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  62  97  66 101 /  20   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  64 101  68 104 /  10   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  89  62  91 /  20   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  58  92  63  94 /  20   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  54  92  59  95 /  20   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  51  93  53  96 /  20   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  52  89  57  92 /  10   0  10   0
Mountainair.....................  55  92  61  95 /  20   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  53  93  59  96 /  20   0   0   5
Carrizozo.......................  62  95  66 100 /  20   5   0   5
Ruidoso.........................  56  86  61  91 /  30  20  10  20
Capulin.........................  53  88  58  91 /  30  20  10  10
Raton...........................  51  91  55  94 /  30  20  10   5
Springer........................  52  92  55  96 /  20  20  10  10
Las Vegas.......................  51  88  55  92 /  20  10  10   5
Clayton.........................  58  94  64  98 /  20  10   0   5
Roy.............................  56  91  60  94 /  40  20  10   5
Conchas.........................  60  98  63 101 /  20   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  59  95  62  97 /  10   5  10   0
Tucumcari.......................  59  97  63 101 /  10   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  61  94  66 101 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  60  95  65 101 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  61  97  65 101 /   5   5   0   0
Roswell.........................  66 100  71 106 /  10  10   0   0
Picacho.........................  60  94  65  99 /  20  30  10  10
Elk.............................  56  92  62  99 /  30  30   0  20
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...42