-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
834
FXUS61 KAKQ 190731
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
331 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure located over will weaken and move offshore
today into Friday. A backdoor cold front potentially drops back
south across the region Saturday. High pressure builds north of
the area this weekend into early next week leading to generally
dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Less rain chances today with some partial clearing later in
  the day.

This morning, high pressure remains centered over New England.
Meanwhile, a stationary front lingers south of the forecast area
over central/southern North Carolina. Aloft, a broad trough is
over the eastern US, with an upper low centered over western VA.
Scattered (mainly light) showers are still lingering over the
southern half of the forecast area this morning. Expect this
activity to continue to weaken and focus further south as we
head through the next few hours. Otherwise we are seeing
widespread low clouds and some instances of drizzle/mist/patchy
fog. Temperatures will generally bottom out in the mid to upper
60s this morning.

Am expecting a drier day (compared to the past few days) as well
as some partial clearing/sunshine (especially later in the day
and inland). Isolated to scattered late morning- afternoon
showers or storms will be possible, mainly across far southern
VA into northeast NC (~30-40% PoPs) as the weakening upper low
pushes across the Carolinas. For much of the northern 2/3rds of
the forecast area, we should see mostly cloudy to partly sunny
skies by this afternoon. High temperatures will range from the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Skies clear out tonight, with lows
dropping into the upper 50s NW and 60s elsewhere. Will have to
watch the potential for some patchy fog (best chances west of
I-95 across the Piedmont).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Drier weather returns Friday into Saturday.

- A backdoor cold front potentially drops south across the region on
Saturday.

Fairly pleasant Friday and Saturday with high pressure over New
England extending down into the local area. Meanwhile, a coastal low
will linger well off the Mid Atlantic coast, eventually bringing a
backdoor cold front into the region for Saturday. Sunshine returns
in earnest for Friday, with temperatures generally in the lower 80s
(70s along the immediate coast). Low temperatures Friday night range
from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Mostly sunny skies continue into
Saturday, with highs again in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Clouds
increase late in the day and especially overnight as a backdoor cold
front drops through the region. The forecast is currently dry for
Saturday night, but there is the potential we may see a few light
rain showers over the area as the front drops south. Lows will again
range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and cooler weather arrives Sunday into early next week.

Aloft, a tall upper level ridge builds well into Canada and
Greenland with an upper level trough along the East Coast this
weekend into early next week. At the surface, low pressure off the
Mid Atlantic coastline gradually shifts south Sunday into early next
week. Meanwhile, a cold front may try to approach from the west late
in the period. Cooler weather is expected by Sunday and especially
Monday, with highs only in the low to mid 70s. Overnight lows will
generally be in the 50s away from the coast. Given the low off the
coast, coastal areas can expect breezy conditions with gusts to 25-
30 mph Sunday into Monday along with greater cloud cover and
humidity. Generally dry weather is expected through the period, with
the next appreciable chances for rain mid to late week with a
possible cold front approaching the region.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Thursday...

Widespread IFR/LIFR CIGs are expected to prevail this morning
and potentially into the late morning for a few spots.
Conditions gradually improve from N to S this morning into this
afternoon, with all sites returning to MVFR and then VFR CIGs
by early afternoon (ECG remaining sub-VFR the longest). The wind
will mainly be NE 5-10kt through the forecast period. Primarily
VFR conditions through the remainder of the forecast period,
though will have to watch the potential for some patchy fog
across the VA Piedmont late.

Outlook: High pressure builds in from the N tonight with some
clearing. This could result in some fog late Thursday night into
early Friday morning. Otherwise, gradually improving and
primarily VFR conditions are expected Friday through the weekend
and into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories continue for coastal waters off the Eastern
Shore into this afternoon

-Additional Small Craft Advisories likely this weekend into early
next week

Onshore/NE flow continues this morning as low pressure remains
situated off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Winds are breezy at 10-15kt
with gusts to 20kt as of latest obs. Buoy obs reflect seas around
4ft S of Cape Charles Light and 5-6ft to the N. SCAs are still in
effect for the elevated seas. May need to extend the SCA for the
waters between Cape Charles and Parramore Island past the set 4am
expiration time given the latest obs. Low pressure will slowly nudge
further NE today and high pressure centered to the N will fill in
over the local area behind it. The relaxing pressure gradient will
allow for further improvement in marine conditions. Winds shift to
the N by the afternoon and 9-13kt,then further diminish to the 5-
10kt later tonight. Expect seas to gradually improve as well,
especially once winds become less onshore. Seas should be down to
~4ft across the coastal waters by late this evening.

Low pressure to the NE will more or less remain in place on Fri.
While N/NE winds will be sub-SCA at 10-15kt Fri-Sat, swell from the
offshore low arrives Fri morning, leading to increasing seas once
again. Northern coastal waters will see 5-6ft seas by Fri afternoon.
Southern coastal waters likely start to see the 5ft seas late Fri
night/early Sat morning. The pressure gradient over the waters will
start to tighten up again Sun as the low shifts SE. This will lead
to increased NE winds Sun, especially over coastal waters. The
bay/rivers will likely need SCAs for winds ~20kt. Winds over coastal
waters look to be 20-25kt. Swell combined with elevated winds will
allow seas to build to 6-8ft in the N and 5-7ft S. While winds look
to improve early next week, seas will be slow to drop off once
again.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Astronomical tides will continue to increase with the approach of
the next full moon. Higher astro tides along with prolonged onshore
flow will continue to produce nuisance to low-end minor tidal
flooding across much of the area along the bay and tidal rivers
through the end of the week. Have opted to extend the Coastal Flood
Advisories given similar water levels near minor flood thresholds
expected for the next high tide cycle as well.

Additional advisories/extension of Advisories will likely be needed
through the end of the week and into the weekend due to extended
periods of onshore flow and high astro tides. Building flood tide
Saturday into Saturday night does bring the potential for tide
levels reaching moderate Coastal Flood Thresholds (best chances
northern coastal zones and lower bay) for tide cycles over the
upcoming weekend. Coastal Flood Watches may be issued in upcoming
forecast cycles.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ075-077.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ078-084>086-095>100-523>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650-
     652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJB/MAM
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...