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137
FXUS61 KALY 091820
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
220 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Rain showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms continue this
afternoon ahead of another upper-level disturbance bringing
additional showers overnight tonight. Cool and showery weather
continues into Monday beneath continued upper troughing, before
high pressure brings a drying and warming trend later in the
workweek.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Earlier steady rain is exiting eastward from New England while a
lull in the precipitation has spread across much of the region.
Beneath a mid and upper-level cold pool aloft, isolated to
scattered showers continue to the north and west nearer to the
next approaching disturbance, with some embedded thunderstorms
beginning to develop upstream over the St Lawrence Valley. This
shower activity will expand into the region through this
afternoon and into the evening, especially the southwestern
Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley, and eastern Catskills. While
a wet-bulb-zero height near 8 kft was observed in the 12z ALY
sounding, the BUF sounding from the same time showed it near 6
kft, which would support relatively low-topped convection
nonetheless being able to generate lightning and small hail as
the core of cold air aloft moves overhead.

Temperatures remain seasonably cool today, reaching afternoon
highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s in high terrain and upper 60s
to mid 70s at lower elevations. Some breezy winds also remain
possible into this evening, particularly across areas of high
terrain and along the favored corridor for westerly flow from
the Mohawk Valley across the Capital District and into the
northern Berkshires.

A second potent upper-level shortwave will drop across the
eastern Great Lakes and track overhead later this evening and
tonight, bringing another round of enhanced rain shower coverage
to the eastern Catskills and southwestern New England, as well
as the southwestern Adirondacks thanks to additional lake
moisture, although thunderstorms should diminish with the loss
of diurnal heating. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will thus
continue across much of the area, with clearing expected to the
south in the Mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield Hills. Overnight
lows expected in the mid 40s to low 50s across the region.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Weakening and departing upper troughing through the short term
period will see a modest warming trend, with drying weather
outside of diurnally-forced afternoon and evening rain showers.
Monday looks to remain seasonably cool, with afternoon highs in
the mid 50s to mid 60s in high terrain and upper 60s to mid 70s
at lower elevations, and overnight lows in the low 40s to low
50s. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will persist across much of
the region, with lake-enhanced cloud coverage expected in the
southwestern Adirondacks. Farther south and east, increased
breaks of sun are possible.

As heights begin to rise aloft on Tuesday, more widespread
clearing is expected, with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies
expected. Temperatures will warm slightly, reaching afternoon
highs in the 60s in high terrain and upper 60s to mid 70s at
lower elevations, while overnight lows rise to the mid 40s to
mid 50s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level trough finally exits off the the New England coast by
Wed, with a drier NW flow developing as weak high pressure builds in
from the west. This should result in dry conditions with
temperatures warming to slightly above normal levels. Flat ridging
expected to remain in place on Thu, although with winds shifting to
the SW, temperatures could warm considerably with upper 80s
attainable in the Hudson Valley. Dewpoints look relatively low (50s
to around 60), so it won`t feel humid.

Fri could be a potentially active day, as a strong upper level
trough and surface cold front are forecast to approach from the
Great Lakes, while a very warm and increasingly unstable air mass
develops ahead of this system. Depending on the timing and
magnitude of instability/shear, there could be some stronger storms
if the parameters and forcing line up during the peak heating
hours. Will continue to monitor trends. Temperatures will be
quite warm ahead of this system, with dewpoints creeping into
the 60s making it feel more humid. Heat index values may
approach or slightly exceed 90F Fri afternoon in valley
locations.

Showers and storms should end by early Sat morning in wake of the
upper trough and cold front passage. Drier and relatively cooler air
filters in on Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The stratiform area of rain from this morning has shifted well to
our east but BKN to OVC low end VFR ceilings continue in its wake as
an upper level low persists overhead. Additional isolated showers
are tracking from west to east towards ALB, GFL and PSF this
afternoon but given limited sunshine, we held off on mentioned TSRA
in the latest TAF update. Will monitor trends and if enough sun can
occur, some low-topped isolated thunderstorms may develop. Will
amend and add a TEMPO group for thunderstorms as needed.

An additional area of rain showers from the Southern Tier looks to
develop this evening and track over the terminals, mainly ALB, PSF
and POU, by 00 - 05 UTC. GFL may remain too far north to see
additional rain showers so only included VCSH there. While VFR
ceilings and visibility should occur during any rain showers,
ceilings look to deteriorate by or shortly after 06 UTC as low-level
moisture remains trapped underneath the low-level inversion.

More breaks of sun should occur through the afternoon leading to SCT
sky coverage. With increased sun, west to northwesterly winds should
increase by 19 - 22 UTC with gusts reaching up to 25kts, especially
at GFL, ALB and PSF. Some peak winds up to 30kts cannot be ruled out
if enough boundary layer mixing can occur. Gusty winds should
diminish by 01 UTC with sustained westerly winds remaining around 5-
9kts overnight.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Speciale