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497
FXUS61 KBGM 240800
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
400 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Relief from the heat arrives behind a cold front today, though
scattered rain showers will affect much of central New York
through the afternoon. Temperatures will remain in the upper
60s to middle 70s today, and will warm back to the 80s on
Tuesday. Another cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms
back to the area on Wednesday. Dry and fair weather will prevail
Thursday and Friday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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4 AM Update...
A cold front has pushed east of the area this morning, bringing
breezy west to northwest winds and lowering temperatures and
dewpoints across the region. In other words, relief from the
heat and humidity is here.

However, a rather sharp upper level trough will swing through
the region today, as an associated surface low moves across
northern NY. This will bring plenty of clouds and showers to the
area, though Central NY will be favored for shower coverage.
Partial clearing will push into the Finger Lakes and areas
roughly west of I-81 by early afternoon, with showers pulling
out of eastern areas by evening. Enough weak instability will
develop for some isolated and weak embedded thunderstorms,
especially as the trough axis moves through.

Surface high pressure builds in overnight, and light winds/clear
skies will be ideal for radiational cooling. Temperatures will
drop into the 50s. Despite the lower humidity, valley fog is
expected to develop, especially along the Susquehanna River in
NY and its upper tributaries, where showers will be most
prevalent today.

Fair weather and warmer temperatures can be expected on Tuesday
as high pressure settles east of the area, and southwest flow
returns. Highs will be in the mid to upper-80s, but dewpoints
will be in 50s, yielding heat index values at or slightly below
ambient temps.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Only minor changes to previous discussion below.

NW flow and cool temps will not stick around for long as the
ridge of high pressure slides eastward and the flow shifts back
to WSWerly Tuesday morning. Mostly clear skies during the
morning hours will allow for temps to climb into the mid to
upper 80s by the afternoon. At least the humidity will remain
relatively low, with dewpoints in the upper 50s, so it will not
feel as sweltering as it has this past week. The ridge looks to
be strong enough to stymie an approaching shortwave and push
precipitation north and south of the area during the afternoon
and evening hours.

The ridge looks to break down Tuesday night, allowing some rain
showers to enter the area from the west. Temps will be warm, only
cooling into the mid to upper 60s as SW flow advects more heat and
moisture into the region.

WAA continues through Wednesday morning, pumping in warm and very
moist air. Dewpoints climb back into the upper 60s across the region
as temperatures warm into the 80s, pushing heat indices back into
the 90s. This combined with a trough sliding into the region from
the Great Lakes will give us our next chance for a severe weather
outbreak. Currently, GFS shows 1500-2500 j/kg of surface based CAPE
across the region with 0-6km bulk shear around 30-35kts. A shortwave
currently looks to be the lifting mechanism to help initiate these
storms, but guidance is still working out how it will play out. The
cold front has been trending a little faster, now moving into the
area Wednesday night. We will have to monitor this trend as a cold
front passage in the late afternoon/early evening would increase
severe chances.

Rain and thunderstorm chances remain across the area through the
night as the cold front pushes through, dissipating by the morning
commute. Temps and dewpoints will fall into the low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Only minor changes to the previous discussion below. Another
cold front with our next chance of showers and thunderstorms
should move through next weekend.


A strong ridge will build in behind the cold front passing
through the area Wednesday night/Thursday morning. NW flow
through the day on Thursday will push drier air into the region,
with dewpoints falling through the day, bottoming out in the low
50s with temps in the 70s. The ridge axis slides east of us on
Friday, warming us back up for the end of the work week and the
weekend. Rain chances should hold off till Saturday as temps
rise back into the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lower ceilings will wrap into the area from the north and
northwest through the early morning hours, with MVFR ceilings
working into most Central NY terminals, while avoiding AVP.
Scattered showers will develop later this morning and while the
odd rumble of thunder isn`t impossible later today, chances are
too low to mention in the TAFs. Instead, carried TEMPO groups
with vis restrictions for heavier showers.

Lower ceilings will erode late in the afternoon, and high
pressure will bring drier conditions and clearing skies through
the overnight hours. Some valley fog is possible tonight/Tuesday
morning in areas that receive the most showers today, but this
will likely not include ELM.

Winds will be a little breezy overnight and through much of the
day Tuesday, generally NW 12 to 15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots
at times.

Outlook...

Late Monday Night through Tuesday...VFR likely, except possible
valley fog Tuesday morning, likely staying outside of TAF
sites.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night...Restrictions possible
in scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...JTC/MWG
LONG TERM...JTC/MWG
AVIATION...BTL/MPH