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554
FXUS61 KGYX 130342
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1142 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms gradually diminish through
the evening tonight. Temperatures warm on Thursday ahead of an
approaching cold front. The front crosses New England on Friday,
bringing the risk for some severe storms and locally heavy
rainfall. High pressure builds in behind the front for the
weekend. The high moves offshore early next week, setting up a
moderating trend with warm temps and heat increasingly likely
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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1145 PM Update... Minor changes to reflect latest observational
trends. A few very isolated showers have developed over the last
hour or so but these should remain isolated in nature with most
locations remaining dry overnight. Patchy fog has begun to
develop and this is expected to become more widespread through
early Thursday morning.

Previously...
630 PM Update... KGYX radar shows one remaining area of showers
and thunderstorms continuing to move eastward over Waldo county
with just a few isolated showers elsewhere. Latest CAMS indicate
this activity will continue to wane through early this evening
with the loss of daytime heating. Other than making some
adjustments to PoPs, sky cover, and temperature trends the
overall forecast remains on track.

Previously...
Showers continue into early evening before tapering off with
weakening instability. Unlike last night, mid level moisture and
MUCAPE will also wane, bringing little chance of showers
continuing far into the night.

Skies become mostly clear from south to north. Mostly calm winds
and the clear skies will promote some cooling overnight, and
areas that saw wetting rains today should also see fog develop
overnight. This could be dense in areas for the Thursday morning
commute, with more widespread fog towards the Midcoast and
Kennebec Valley.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry on Thursday as moisture in the low levels is displaced. This
should give us a break from daily scattered showers. Highs will
also rebound into the low to mid 80s across southern NH and
upper 70s to around 80 for much of southern Maine.

SW flow will be underway, and there could be enough
destabilization to create some scattered cu across the interior
into the afternoon.

Thursday night, timing comes into play as convection to the west
slowly tracks east. Currently playing the later game, expecting
much of Thurs night to be dry. However, there could be some
showers tracking into northern NH and towards the ME/Quebec
border towards early Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Overview...

A cold front moves through on Friday, bringing scattered
thunderstorms and the chance for some severe storms and heavy
rainfall. High pressure builds across New England for the
weekend, and then moves offshore early next week. Heat builds
into the Northeast next week as a ridge builds across the
Eastern US.

Details...

Warm and humid conditions are expected ahead of the front on
Friday as temps warm into the 80s. The front moves through
during the afternoon, allowing for widespread showers and
scattered thunderstorms, along with the chance of some strong to
severe storms across southern New Hampshire and toward the
coastline. These areas see the most daytime heating before the
front`s arrival. Toward the coast, there is some concern for
slow moving and training storms, so we will need to continue to
monitor the threat for flooding with these storms, as well as
the severe threat.

High pressure builds in behind the front for the weekend,
bringing dry conditions and seasonable temperatures for Saturday
and Sunday. The high then moves offshore by early next week,
helping to set up a warm southwesterly flow with moderating
temperatures.

A ridge builds across the Northeast much of next week, with
increasing confidence for significant heat next week. Highs in
the 90s look likely by Tuesday in many spots, and likely
continue to climb on Wednesday. Dew points will also be on the
rise Tuesday and Wednesday, with dew points likely pushing 70
degrees by Wednesday. This give heat indices in the upper 90s to
low 100s by Wednesday.

This heat is still about a week away, and there are still
several factors that could disrupt to core of the heat, such as
an MCS or increased cloud cover running around the ridge.
However, ensembles look to be trending toward the warmer
solutions with several days of heat looking increasingly likely.
Lows also look to remain in the 70s across southern and coastal
areas starting Wednesday night, so nighttime recovery doesn`t
look substantial either. We`ll continue to monitor it over the
next few days, but that`s how things look to be trending at this
point.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...VFR today with some areas of MVFR where cloud bases
are low amid SHRA. These SHRA continue for the afternoon,
dissipating this evening. Would expect fog to develop across
many terminal areas tonight, more patchy across the interior and
more consistent along the coast...especially towards PWM/RKD.
This should dissipate around 12z Thursday, but can expect some
to linger an hour or two longer in vicinity of the coast. VFR
Thursday and Thursday night.

Long Term...Some showers and storms bring restrictions to most
terminals Friday afternoon, with VFR conditions expected
otherwise. VFR then prevails from Friday night through early
next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Below SCA criteria tonight and Thursday. Fog will
continue to develop over the waters. There may be a period of
25kt gusts on the outer waters Thursday evening and overnight.
This may be enough to build some 4 to 5 ft waves on the outer
waters, thus a brief SCA may be needed into Friday.


Long Term...SCA conditions are possible on Friday ahead of a
cold front. The front crosses the waters Friday night. Fair
conditions are then expected for the weekend and early next week
as high pressure settles along the Eastern Seaboard.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Tubbs