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887
FXUS63 KICT 211149
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
649 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing chances for scattered to numerous showers/storms
  late today through Sunday night. Locally heavy rainfall
  likely, especially along/north of Highway 50.

- One more day of hot weather today, with a big cool down
  Sunday into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

PRECIPITATION...

EARLY THIS MORNING--EARLY AFTERNOON...A smattering of hit-or-miss
showers/storms will impact the region, ahead of subtle mid-level
energy amidst rich mid-level moisture. Most locations should
remain dry. Brief heavy rain will accompany the strongest cores.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON--SUNDAY NIGHT...This period will feature
increasing chances for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms, as a potent shortwave approaching from the southwest
interacts with a strong cold front approaching from the north. The
best chances late this afternoon through about midday Sunday will be
mainly along and northwest of I-35, with these chances gradually
shifting south into southern and southeast Kansas Sunday afternoon
and night. While widespread severe weather is not expected, modest
instability and ample flow aloft may support some storm organization
for a handful of strong to severe storms, mainly late this afternoon-
evening along/northwest of I-35, and again over southeast Kansas
Sunday afternoon-evening. Additionally, seasonably high precipitable
waters and numerous training showers/storms will support locally
heavy rainfall, with the greatest potential for localized storm-
total amounts exceeding 1-2 inches generally along/north of Highway
50 per probabilistic guidance.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports
the potential for scattered light precipitation Tuesday night, as
shortwave energy dives southeast over Mid-America. Thereafter,
significant model divergence is noted, with the ECMWF and Canadian
consensus stalling an upper low over the region through next
weekend, while the GFS is much more progressive. The ECMWF/Canadian
solutions would support periodic rain chances (especially if the
latest Canadian verifies with the incorporation of remnant tropical
energy), while the GFS would keep a mostly dry forecast. Stay tuned
as details become clearer the next several days.

TEMPERATURES...

TODAY--SATURDAY...One more day of above average temperatures will
prevail through today, as southerly flow persists ahead of a deep
western CONUS trough. Widespread 90s to near 100 degrees are likely,
although increasing dense mid and upper clouds could end up
tempering highs a few degrees cooler, especially over central
Kansas.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...Much cooler weather is on the way, as a strong
cold front slices south through Mid-America. The cooler Canadian
airmass combined with widespread clouds and precipitation should
keep central Kansas in the 50s-60s Sunday, with 70s and 80s further
south, although temperatures will be falling by mid-late afternoon
over southern Kansas. Deterministic and ensemble consensus keeps the
region below average much of next week, especially if the cooler
ECMWF and Canadian solutions verify with the stalling storm system
over Mid-America.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 641 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Busy aviation forecast the next 24 hours, with thunderstorm
chances, a wind shift, and low clouds.

For this morning, there will be a smattering of hit-or-miss
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms across central and
eastern Kansas. This activity should stay mostly light.

Shower and thunderstorm activity should become more widespread
later today through tonight, as a cold front approaches from the
northwest, amidst potent shortwave energy approaching from the
west-southwest. Thinking this activity will be most widespread
generally along/northwest of the I-35 corridor. For now covered
this threat will PROB30, but later shifts may need to consider
prevailing TSRA this evening through tonight, especially for
SLN, RSL, GBD, and maybe HUT. Strong to marginally severe storms
are possible before midnight, with the strongest activity
capable of 50-60 mph winds, small hail, and locally heavy rain.

Additionally, a wind shift to northerly winds will progress
southeast across the region tonight into early Sunday, with
breezy/gusty north winds likely by later tonight. The cold
advection will support MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings expanding
south later tonight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

A record cool high temperature is possible at Russell on Sunday.
The record is 57 degrees last set in 1962, with the forecast
calling for mid-upper 50s.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK
CLIMATE...ADK