-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
758
FXUS61 KRLX 221803
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
203 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry/hot today. Chances of showers/thunderstorms increase late
tonight through Wednesday, bringing possible beneficial
rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 119 PM Sunday...

After a cloudy and foggy start to the day in many spots, we can
expect full sunshine the rest of today. It will be an
unseasonably hot afternoon for the first official day of Fall
with high temperatures expected to reach the lower 90s across
the lowlands and the mid 80s in the mountains. Relative humidity
will be low this afternoon, bottoming out at 30-40% across the
central WV lowlands and southeast OH. However, light and
variable winds should mitigate the fire threat today.

High cirrus clouds will approach from the west by late this
afternoon and this evening ahead of another low pressure system.
A wave of 500-mb vorticity ahead of that low pressure system
will bring showers into the area from west to east beginning
mainly midnight, lasting through mid-morning Monday. Rain can
be heavy at times with some embedded thunder also possible. High
resolution models suggest that this batch of rain should be gone
by early Monday afternoon, with additional showers and
thunderstorms possible later in the day as another wave of mid-
level energy approaches. Severe weather is generally not
expected Monday afternoon with weak instability over our area.
Monday should be much cooler than today with more clouds than
sun. Highs should only reach the lower 80s in the lowlands and
the upper 70s in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 200 PM Sunday...

Moisture will remain over the region Monday night with a frontal
boundary stalled near the area. An upper level disturbance will then
move a surface low along the front for Tuesday, pushing the frontal
boundary eastward somewhat. Much of the region will remain in the
moist air mass for Tuesday night. This will provide chance of
showers and thunderstorms for Monday night through Tuesday night,
with the best chances being Tuesday afternoon as the upper level
disturbance provides some energy during the daytime heating.
Beneficial rainfall is possible in portions of the drought area,
although the convective nature of the precipitation doesn`t
guarantee that all areas will see significant precipitation.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Sunday...

Models are starting to come into slightly better agreement for
the extended period. A frontal boundary will stall near the area
for Wednesday and Wednesday night as an upper level low cuts
off over the central United States. This low will then interact
with a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico, causing a
fujiwhara effect. This will sling the tropical system northward
and then northwestward, keeping the bulk of the system west of
our region. Models do show some outer bands moving into our
area and possibly evening stalling in our vicinity. Still way to
early to put stock in the timing and location of the outer band
moisture, but if this were to stall over the area, some heavy
rains would be possible.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 108 PM Sunday...

Flight conditions have returned to VFR this afternoon at all
terminals after a foggy morning in many spots. VFR should
continue the rest of today with light and variable winds.

Another low pressure system will slowly approach from the west
overnight. Showers will approach from west to east beginning at
04Z Monday morning and ceilings will lower to MVFR or IFR in
most terminals. In addition, patchy dense fog is also expected
at KEKN from 06-14Z with VLIFR VISBY restrictions. Fog should
dissipate at KEKN by around 14Z.

MVFR ceilings will linger into Monday afternoon and through the
end of the TAF period. Expect westerly winds at 4-8 knots
Monday, occasionally gusting to 10 knots at times.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of low ceilings and patchy dense fog
overnight may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/RPY
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JMC