-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
581
FXUS64 KSHV 160633
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
133 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

No changes for this update, as the current package remains on
track. Upper ridging and sfc high pressure will continue to slide
east of the region overnight. This will allow for southerly winds
to return into the area. This will make for warmer temperatures
tonight, with lows in the low to mid 70s. In addition to the
warmer temps, can`t rule out a few clouds streaming into the
region overnight too. Otherwise, expect quiet conditions to
continue over the region tonight, with rain chances returning to
portions of the region tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Light southerly winds have returned to the area as a surface
trough lee of the Rockies has become the more dominant low-level
synoptic feature affecting us. Despite the low wind speeds, weak
warm air advection and subsidence from a departing upper-level
ridge have allow the warming trend to continue. The aforementioned
subsidence is also weaker resulting in widespread daytime cu.
Precip-free conditions should continue through at least Sunday
morning. Patchy fog may develop around sunrise in our more fog-
prone locations in the terrain of the Ouachitas and in the Deep
East Texas lakes.

Deep onshore flow will increase during the day Sunday allowing
Gulf moisture to quickly surge northward. This should also bring
the sea breeze into at least our southernmost parishes of Louisiana.
Some of the model guidance also suggests a weak disturbance will
also move across the region as it travels around the western
periphery of the departing ridge. This disturbance could result in
increased coverage of diurnally- driven showers and thunderstorms
along the sea breeze Sunday afternoon. Moisture return will still
be a bit modest, so the best rain chances will be limited to
portions of Grant and La Salle Parishes. Slight-chance PoPs will
persist in the same areas overnight and into early Monday, but the
vast majority of the convection should gradually dissipate after
sunset Sunday.

Otherwise, another very warm day is expected for Sunday. Daytime
highs will once again rise well into the 90s areawide. Peak heat
index values may climb into the lower 100s across much of
Louisiana and portions of Deep East Texas where humidity levels
will be the highest.

CN

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The rich plume of tropical moisture will stream directly overhead
to begin the work week. The highest and most widespread rain
chances are expected Monday afternoon but should be slightly lower
on Tuesday. The biggest question for PoPs on Tuesday surrounds the
track of a potential tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.
Previous model runs brought this system much farther north along
the middle to upper Texas coast, resulting in considerably higher
rain chances for Tuesday. However, some of the latest models are
once again trending farther south towards Deep South Texas. A
farther south track would result in low-level easterly winds and
less onshore flow, which would keep the better moisture
availability farther south and closer to the coast. This would
also affect potential rainfall amounts, especially across East
Texas south of Interstate 20. Given the widespread among the
models, there is considerable uncertainty and low confidence in
rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday.

By Thursday, the remnants of the tropical system should be well to
the west and rain chances will be gradually diminishing. However,
strong diurnal instability and weak capping will allow at least
slight chances for diurnally-driven convection to persist through
Friday. For the duration of the week, the highest rain chances
will be in the afternoon through the early evening hours during
peak daytime heating, but some rain chances may persist into the
overnight hours until Thursday.

Despite the uncertainty regarding the precip, increased cloud
cover should help bring relief from the heat. If the widespread
precip does develop, temperatures could be cooled even more
significantly Monday through Wednesday, possibly keeping daytime
highs below 90 degrees F areawide. Unfortunately, the hot and
humid conditions will be quick to return during the latter half of
the week as rain chances diminish.

CN

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, the upper ridge is far enough E now
to shift a tropical connection into the lower MS River Valley. Sea
breeze activity is open for business with this 1st push toward
KMLU/KELD 21-00Z. Enhancements start the week as weak low dvlps
from an inverted trough. Also, an Easterly wave will pile into the
mix for widespread potential and perhaps repeat surges with quick
recovery in the tropical air. Air density will be decreasing
until late week in the wake of a cyclone over the TX coastal bend.
/24/
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHV  77  90  75  86 /   0  60  20  50
MLU  74  88  72  82 /  10  70  30  50
DEQ  72  89  71  86 /   0  30  10  30
TXK  75  92  73  87 /   0  50  10  40
ELD  72  88  71  82 /   0  60  20  40
TYR  75  91  73  89 /   0  30   0  30
GGG  74  90  73  87 /   0  50  10  40
LFK  74  88  73  86 /   0  70  10  60
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...24