-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
276
FXUS64 KSHV 201722
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1222 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1049 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

As of 10:45 AM, temperatures are approaching the mid-to-upper 80s
with partly cloudy skies. Afternoon temperature maximums will
reach the low-to-mid 90s with easterly winds at 5-10 mph. With
weather and observed trends continuing as anticipated, forecast
grid adjustments were not necessary at this time. /16/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Upper-level ridging continues to slide west this morning across the
Appalachians, with the western extent of the ridge moving into the
Ark-La-Miss. As the ridge builds across the region this afternoon,
this will start to displace the tropical moisture left over from the
influence of the Monsoon Gyre across the SW Gulf of Mexico earlier
in the week, and the designation of TS Alberto Wednesday afternoon.

Under the influence of the ridge, and when compared to yesterday,
clouds should thin out in overall coverage. HREF guidance and RH
cross sections suggest a field of cumulus by the afternoon, with
waves of thin cirrus aloft. This will allow for afternoon maxT`s to
climb into the low to mid 90`s. Even though temperatures will be
warm, the influence of upper ridge and associated sfc high pressure
will trap instability parameters across lower Toledo Bend, with the
best chance for diurnally driven thunderstorms remaining south of
the region. That being said, not ruling out a brief and stray
afternoon thunderstorm across the aforementioned area.

By Friday, the Four State will be entirely influenced by the upper-
ridge and sfc high pressure. Rain chances will be non-existent and
temperatures in return will begin to climb, ending up in the mid
90`s. This warming trend will continue into the weekend where our
hottest temperatures of the year will likely materialize.

RK

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

The axis of the upper-ridge will be overhead by Friday night and
will remain in place through the weekend. The impacts of this very
expansive upper-ridge pattern across the southern CONUS will
bring hot temperatures in form of upper 90`s, nearing 100 deg F.
If this is to materialize, this will be the hottest temperatures
of the season so far. At the same time, while actual temperatures
near 100 deg F, heat index values will have already been in the
triple digits for several days. As a result, heat products will
likely be needed by the weekend, with confidence increasing that
they will carry over into early next week. With temperatures
climbing, this can quickly pose a threat to heat sensitive
communities. It is important to practice proper heat safety if
planning to be outdoors for extended periods of time. Finding cool
and shaded areas, along with staying hydrated, are just a few
ways to ensure that you avoid heat related illness.

The ridge will begin to slowly break down locally by Monday
evening, reintroducing diurnally driven thunderstorm chances come
Tuesday and Wednesday. Long range solutions look to be in
agreement for the ridge axis to slide further west across Texas,
entering the Four Corners of the CONUS by early Tuesday AM. If
this pattern continues to play out, by the end of the period, it
is possible that we will begin to re-enter another NW flow regime.
At this time though, confidence is too low to define any specific
outcomes that could arise from this.

RK

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR conditions to prevail across area terminals through the
forecast period ending 21/18Z. With high pressure settling across
the region, light east winds this afternoon will become variable
overnight, increasing to 5 to 10 knots on Friday. /05/
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHV  74  96  77  98 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  70  94  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  69  93  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  70  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  68  94  70  96 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  73  94  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  71  95  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  73  95  73  96 /  10   0   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...05