959
FXUS65 KABQ 220811
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
211 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 120 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Cooler and much quieter conditions will prevail today and Monday
behind the departing storm system, with only a slight chance for
showers and storms over the northern and central mountains. A few
storms are possible Tuesday as well, focusing across the south
central mountains and southeast plains. Otherwise, a warming trend
is forecast from mid week through the weekend, with temperatures
rising above normal areawide under the influence of high pressure.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 120 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The upper low has lifted into Colorado, and both segments (the
Pacific and plains) of the surface cold front are overtaking NM.
Showers and thunderstorms have dwindled significantly early this
morning, but are not completely finished with a few more elevated
cells expected to periodically impact the far eastern plains through
daybreak. Winds have picked up from the north in most eastern plains
locales, and a subtle veering in direction is expected through the
morning as surface high pressure reorients itself just east of the
NM central mountain chain. This will lead to a gusty gap wind in
vulnerable locations within central parts of the state such as ABQ.
Gusts may reach 20 to briefly 30 mph before tapering off some in the
late afternoon. With more of an easterly surface component to the
flow, much of the east slopes of the central mountain chain and the
high eastern plains could remain shrouded in low stratus into the
late morning and early to mid afternoon hours with some sprinkles or
drizzle occasionally accompanying. Mostly clear skies will prevail
in the majority of the western zones, but in north central mountain
areas some building cumulus and isolated showers and storms will be
possible. Thunderstorms would primarily favor the Tusas mountains
near Chama where instability will still be present with cooler
temperatures aloft. These will likely be weak and short-lived, only
amounting to a few hundredths of liquid equivalent and perhaps a
quick dusting of very high elevation snow above 11,000 ft.  Overall
forecast high temperatures for today were lowered a couple to a few
degrees more, going on the cooler side of guidance, especially in
the eastern half of the CWA where stratus are expected to stunt
diurnal warming.

Low stratus may return for some east slope areas of the central
mountain chain tonight, and the gap wind may surge up for a few
hours in the evening before gradually relaxing. The remnants of the
upper low will move into the plains of KS/NE/MO/IA tonight and early
Monday. Surface winds across most of central and eastern NM will
veer in direction on Monday, turning more southerly over the plains
while other areas carry a west or northwesterly component by the
afternoon. Temperatures will warm up a few to several degrees with
the plains undergoing the largest rises (generally 10 to 15
degrees), but many locations will still be a couple degrees shy of
seasonal averages. The rising surface temperatures could produce
just enough instability for isolated showers and thunderstorms over
the northern, south central and southwestern mountains. The northern
mountains could get some aid via a weak shortwave trough dropping
out of Colorado, but the storm coverage and intensity would remain
isolated and low Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 120 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

A short-lived Rex block along the west coast will break-down
Monday night and the upper high will move east across the Great
Basin to the Rockies and NM by Wednesday with good agreement now
among the 00Z medium range model solutions. Sufficient moisture
will remain Tuesday across southeast and south central NM for
isolated daytime heating triggered convection, which may impact
the Sacramento Complex. However, instability will be limited and
this is a low forecast confidence scenario given zero qpf from the
00Z GFS and ECMWF. An anomalously strong upper high over the
region(for late September) will be the dominant weather feature
from Wednesday into the weekend, with a warming trend that will
take temperatures above normal areawide by Friday or Saturday.
Otherwise, except for a brief gusty east canyon wind into the RGV
Tuesday night, winds will be light through the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

While thunderstorms have mostly come to an end in eastern New
Mexico, there will still be unsettled weather lingering into
Sunday across this half of the state. The culprit low pressure
system will continue to work into eastern Colorado through Sunday
morning, pushing a cold front farther down the plains and
eventually westward into the Rio Grande valley and Continental
Divide areas of New Mexico. This will keep scattered to broken low
stratus clouds and drizzle over much of the eastern half of New
Mexico with ceilings commonly dropping below 3000 ft (MVFR status)
and localized areas of ceilings less than 1000 ft (IFR status).
Ceilings may rise through the late morning and early afternoon,
but may not fully erode away until very late in the afternoon. Low
clouds could then redevelop along the east slopes of the central
mountain chain (near KRTN, KLVS, KCQC, and KSRR) Sunday evening.
Dry and VFR conditions with no limits to ceilings/visibility are
forecast for the western half of New Mexico tonight through Sunday
evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 120 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

In the wake of a cold front that was ushered in by a deep low
pressure system, much cooler weather is forecast for today. Low
clouds could be stubborn and somewhat persistent in the eastern half
of NM, keeping temperatures below normal by 15 to 20 degrees today.
Lower chances for showers and storms are also expected today while
moderate east or northeast winds keep feeding into much of central
and eastern NM. The winds could accelerate through the gaps and
canyons within central NM where gusts may reach 25 to 30 mph today
and this evening. Isolated showers or storms cannot be ruled out in
the northern and southwestern NM mountains on Monday with warmer,
but still slightly below normal, temperatures and more relaxed
winds. Forecast models are changing their tune about a potential
disturbance dropping into eastern NM on Tuesday with signs now
pointing toward an inconsequential feature producing little to no
rainfall. The warming trend would then likely continue through the
rest of the week with mostly dry and fairly tranquil conditions
expected to prevail. No critical fire weather is foreseen, but some
drying of fuels could occur.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  72  46  78  47 /  10   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  65  38  73  37 /  20  20  10   0
Cuba............................  66  42  72  44 /  10  10   5   0
Gallup..........................  73  37  77  38 /   5   5   5   0
El Morro........................  70  37  74  44 /   5   5   5   0
Grants..........................  72  39  76  39 /   5   5   5   0
Quemado.........................  72  39  76  44 /   0   0   5   0
Magdalena.......................  71  45  75  51 /   0   0  10   5
Datil...........................  71  40  75  45 /   0   0  10   0
Reserve.........................  76  41  80  44 /   0   0  10   5
Glenwood........................  80  48  83  54 /   0   0  10   5
Chama...........................  58  35  66  38 /  30  20  30  10
Los Alamos......................  64  46  70  51 /  20  10  10  10
Pecos...........................  62  41  71  46 /  20  10  10  10
Cerro/Questa....................  59  38  66  42 /  20  10  20  10
Red River.......................  53  33  60  38 /  20  10  30  10
Angel Fire......................  55  30  64  29 /  20  10  30  10
Taos............................  63  38  70  38 /  20  20  10  10
Mora............................  56  38  69  40 /  20  10  20  10
Espanola........................  70  45  77  47 /  20  10   5   0
Santa Fe........................  67  46  73  49 /  20  10   5   5
Santa Fe Airport................  71  44  76  46 /  10  10   5   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  73  50  78  57 /  10   5   5   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  75  52  79  55 /   5   0   0   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  77  46  81  50 /   5   0   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  75  49  79  53 /   5   5   0   0
Belen...........................  78  47  82  51 /   5   0   0   5
Bernalillo......................  75  47  80  51 /  10   5   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  77  45  81  48 /   5   0   0   5
Corrales........................  75  47  80  50 /   5   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  78  46  81  49 /   5   0   0   5
Placitas........................  73  47  78  54 /  10   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  74  49  79  53 /   5   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  79  51  84  57 /   0   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  67  43  73  52 /  10   5   0   5
Tijeras.........................  69  44  75  51 /  10   0   0   5
Edgewood........................  67  41  75  48 /  10   0   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  69  39  77  41 /  10   5   0   5
Clines Corners..................  63  41  72  46 /  20   5   5   5
Mountainair.....................  68  42  75  49 /  10   0   5   5
Gran Quivira....................  68  41  76  48 /  10   0   5   5
Carrizozo.......................  71  49  77  55 /  10   5  10   5
Ruidoso.........................  61  41  71  49 /  10   5  20  10
Capulin.........................  54  38  70  44 /  30   5  20  10
Raton...........................  60  39  73  41 /  20  10  20  10
Springer........................  64  40  75  42 /  10   5  10   5
Las Vegas.......................  61  40  73  43 /  20  10  10   5
Clayton.........................  58  43  74  51 /  20   5   5  10
Roy.............................  63  42  72  48 /  10   5   5  10
Conchas.........................  68  47  79  52 /  20   0   0  10
Santa Rosa......................  66  46  77  51 /  10   5   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  65  46  78  52 /  20   5   0  10
Clovis..........................  64  48  78  56 /  30  10   5  10
Portales........................  64  48  78  55 /  30  10   5  10
Fort Sumner.....................  66  47  78  54 /  10   5   0   5
Roswell.........................  70  54  83  59 /  10  10  10   5
Picacho.........................  65  48  77  53 /  10  10  10   5
Elk.............................  65  46  76  51 /  10  10  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...52