981
FXUS61 KAKQ 270744
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
344 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly crosses southern Virginia and northeast
North Carolina through this afternoon, bringing scattered
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure builds north of the
region late Thursday into Friday. Heat and humidity return over
the weekend with an increased chance of thunderstorms by Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will gradually spread
  south early this morning.

- Some beneficial rain has occurred over the north, and
  additional rainfall is likely into at least central portions
  of the area, although it will be hit and miss due to the
  nature of the storms.

- A few thunderstorms are possible across SE VA/NE NC this
  afternoon-evening.

An upper level trough is pushing across the eastern Great Lakes
and Northeast early this morning. At the surface, low pressure
is pushing across northern New England, with a cold front
trailing to the SW into northern VA. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are pushing across the area early this morning in
advance of the cold front. Rainfall amounts have generally been
0.75- 1.5" across n-central VA to the Eastern Shore, with an
embedded band of 2-3" amounts across the MD Eastern Shore, with
localized amounts ~4". Rainfall from the SW Piedmont to the RIC
metro has generally been 0.25" or less, and rain has yet to fall
across SE VA and NE NC. Temperatures early this morning range
from the upper 60s to lower 70s N, to the upper 70s to lower 80s
S.

The cold front slowly pushes south across southern VA and NE NC
today as high pressure and a drier airmass build into the
northern tier of the area. Showers/tstms will initially diminish
in coverage this morning, but are expected to redevelop along
the boundary this afternoon with the highest chc across SE VA
and NE NC. However, there is some uncertainty with respect to
where convection develops today (mainly regarding whether it
will be in srn VA/NE NC or just to our south depending on where
the outflow from overnight convection settles). High
temperatures return to seasonally hot levels ranging from the
mid 80s to near 90F. Showers/tstms largely dissipate or move to
our south by late this evening, although some isolated activity
could linger into the early overnight hours over from the SW
Piedmont to NE NC. Otherwise, partly cloudy to mostly clear
tonight with low temperatures ranging from the mid 60s N to the
lower 70s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Not as hot and mainly dry Friday.

- Heat rebuilds across the region Saturday with more humidity.

High pressure builds across New England Friday following the
frontal passage. Easterly flow Friday will keep highs in the
lower 80s along the coast, with mid to upper 80s inland. Surface
high pressure initially settles off the coast Friday night into
early Saturday, with some moisture returning as a weak warm
front lifts through the area. Therefore, there is a slight chc
to low chc of showers and perhaps a tstm from central VA and the
Piedmont to the MD Eastern Shore Friday night into early
Saturday morning. Lows Friday night are mainly in the upper 60s
to mid 70s. Heat and increasing humidity return Saturday as high
pressure settles off the Southeast coast. Highs Saturday return
to the upper 80s to lower 90s, with some mid 90s possible in
central VA as 850mb temperatures around 20C return with
increasing mid-level SW flow. This combined with surface
dewpoints in the lower 70s will result in heat indices of
100-105F. There is a slight chc to low chc of aftn
showers/tstms over the Piedmont in vicinity of a subtle lee-side
trough.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dangerous heat indices likely across parts of the area on
  Sunday as heat and humidity peak ahead of a cold front.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible later Sunday
  afternoon into Sunday night ahead of a cold front.

- A brief break in the heat is likely early next week before
  very hot weather potentially returns by Independence Day.

Heat and humidity continue to prevail Sunday as high pressure
remains off the Southeast coast and the low-level flow once
again increases out of the SW. 850mb temps rise to 20-22C on
Sunday. This will support high temps in the mid 90s. Aftn
dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 70s (mid 70s mainly toward
the coast) during peak heating. This is supported by the
deterministic guidance and MOS guidance, but is below the mid
70s-80F shown by the NBM (which is likely too high especially
given how dry it has been the past month). Resultant heat
indices are in the 105-109F range for much of the CWA Sunday.
Isolated to widely scattered tstms are possible on Saturday
afternoon (mainly W of I-95), with a better chc of showers/tstms
later Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as a cold front drops
through the region. A slight reprieve in the heat is likely
early next week in the wake of the cold front as the 00z/27 EPS
and GEFS continue to depict below average 850mb temperature
anomalies Monday and Tuesday. However, the ensemble guidance
also surges the heat back into the region by the middle of next
week just prior to Independence Day with forecast highs well
into the 90s for much of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...

Areas of showers/tstms continue to push ENE from central VA to
the Eastern Shore as a cold front approaches from the N. The
best coverage will remain at SBY with occasional IFR vsby
restrictions through ~08z. Coverage is more scattered around RIC
with brief vsby restrictions in showers/tstms possible through
~09z. Farther SE at ORF, PHF, and ECG coverage will be more
isolated and arriving around and after 08z. Prior to the
arrival of the boundary, these sites will have a SW wind of
10-15kt gusting to ~20kt. Some MVFR stratus remains possible
08-15z, with brief IFR cigs possible at SBY 10-12z. The front
will be slow to push through southern VA and NE NC this
afternoon with a 30-60% chc of redeveloping aftn/early evening
showers/tstms (higher chc at ECG and lower at ORF). Brief flight
restrictions are possible, mainly in vsby.

High pressure and dry conditions return Friday into Saturday.
There is another decent chance for showers/tstms later Sunday
into Sunday night. High pressure and drier conditions return by
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...

SW winds mainly 5-15 kt will become S and increase to 10-20 kt with
gusts up to 25 kt by late this aftn into this evening in advance of
a cold front. Waves will build to 2-3 ft in the Bay, and seas will
build to 3-5 ft in the coastal waters. So, SCAs are in effect for
the mouth of the Bay, all coastal waters and the Currituck Sound
from thru 1 AM (4 AM north of Parramore Island). That weakening cold
front will push through the region late tonight into Thu aftn. NE
winds expected late Thu night through Fri morning, then E and SE
winds for Fri aftn into Sat morning, as high pressure slides by to
the north then off the srn New England coast. Low rip current risk
is forecast for all beaches today and Thu. Moderate rip risk on
Friday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ERI
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ERI
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ERI
LONG TERM...AJZ/ERI
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...JDM/TMG