393
FXUS61 KALY 270823
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
423 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Morning clouds give way to increasing sun today as cooler and
breezy conditions ensue with some spotty showers north of
Albany. We turn chilly tonight as high pressure takes control of
the Northeast. After a sunny and seasonably cool Friday,
chances for rain and thunderstorms return for the weekend ahead
our next cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early clouds give way to increasing sun through the day as the
true cold front continues to slide south and eastward through
the region ushering in cooler and much drier air. A few isolated
showers remain possible, especially in the southern/western
Adirondacks, Upper Hudson Valley, and southern VT, where an
upper level trough tracking through Quebec will likely provide
sufficient forcing for ascent to generate a few isolated
showers. However, overall moisture through the column is lacking
so any shower will be short-lived and may very well fall more
like sprinkles. Maintained slight chance POP (and even chance
POPs in the southern Greens) wording for areas north of I-90
through 18 - 21 UTC.

Otherwise, since the cooler air mass will be delayed under after
the frontal passage this afternoon, temperatures today should
still end up seasonably warm (albeit cooler than recent days) rising
into the mid to upper 70s with low 80s for the Hudson Valley
areas from the Capital District southward. The sfc pressure
gradient ahead of the incoming front tightens in response to
high pressure building into the Great Lakes and with much drier
air filtering into the area, deep boundary layer mixing will
support gusty winds today. In fact, expecting west to northwest
winds to become sustained up to 10-15kts with gusts up to
20-25kts. The strongest winds will set-up down the Mohawk
Valley into the Greater Capital District, northern Taconics into
Berkshire County.

Skies turn mainly sunny/clear by late afternoon as northwest
winds usher in noticeably cooler and drier air mass. PWATs
only around 0.50" overspread eastern NY and western New
England and dew points quickly tumble into the low 50s to even
upper 40s in the higher terrain areas. Temperatures quickly
respond to the loss of insolation and the dry air mass falling
into the 60s to low 70s by sunset.

Increasing subsidence in the wake of our departing shortwave
trough will allow high pressure building east of the Great Lakes
to strengthen as it takes control of the Northeast tonight.
Clear skies and calm winds will support ideal radiational
cooling and with PWATs dropping under 0.50", dew points will
fall into the 40s. Favored the NBM 5th and 10th percentile
guidance for overnight lows tonight as temperatures should
approach their respective dew points and drop into the mid to
upper 40s (low 50s in the mid-Hudson Valley) throughout much of
eastern NY and western New England. Pockets of upper 30s could
even occur in the southern Adirondacks and spine of the southern
Greens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Large scale subsidence and a 1020hPa high overhead on Friday
will support abundant sunshine with very low humidity and light
winds. After a chilly start, temperatures will warm in response
to the June sunshine climbing into the mid to upper 70s. With
dew points remaining rather low in the 40s and PWATs still near
or under 0.50", it will feel quite comfortable, especially for
those who are sensitive to humidity.

Clear skies Friday evening will fade behind increasing clouds as
high pressure slides off the New England coast and return
southwesterly flow ensues. Temperatures should remain mild
thanks to the increasing clouds and increasing warm air and
moisture advection with overnight lows only dropping into the
50s to around 60.

Cloudy skies remain in place for Saturday as southwesterly flow
continues over the Northeast ahead of broad troughing
developing in the Great Lakes. A warm front will be approaching
from the south but we remain mainly to its north on Saturday.
With the warm sector still to our south, temperatures look similar
to Friday, only rising into the mid to upper 70s with around 80
in the Hudson Valley near and south of Albany. Humidity, on the
other hand, will be noticeably higher compared to Friday as dew
points rebound into the 60s. The sfc pressure gradient ahead of
the incoming warm front/precipitation and high pressure off
shore will tighten as well, giving us rather breezy conditions.

As the leading edge of the warm nose and a mid-level shortwave
overspreads the region from west to east Saturday afternoon,
showers and some thunderstorms gradually track eastward into our
area and we trend POPs upwards with likely POPs extending into
the southern Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley but only chance POPs
in the Hudson Valley and western New England where showers
should be delayed until mid to late afternoon. The low-level
levels remain dry to start so it may take some time for the
column to become saturated and allow showers to reach the
ground.

While the mid and upper level southwesterly wind field
strengthens supporting rather high deep layer shear values
ranging 40 to 50kts, instability is lacking giving the cloudy
skies and cooler temperatures ahead of the warm sector. We still
mention chances for thunderstorms Saturday P.M given dew points
rising into the 60s but the stronger instability remains
displaced mainly to our west in western NY/PA where SPC has
introduced a slight risk for severe weather. Relatively higher
instability spreads eastward into more of our area Saturday
night and with deep layer shear values remaining strong, the
severe weather potential may clip our western areas, namely the
western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks. SPC has
introduced a marginal risk for severe weather for these areas
and while shear will certainly be strong enough to support
organized convection, severe weather will be contingent upon
the amount of instability that can spread eastward.

Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms continue tracking into
eastern NY and western New England Saturday night as strong
southwesterly winds ahead of the approaching trough maintain a
fetch of warm/moist air into the Northeast. Expect a humid
Saturday night with lows barely dropping out of the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front tracks south/east across the region Sunday. However, the
deeper moisture and greatest instability might be shunted south and
east of the region by afternoon as a pre-frontal trough potentially
moves through. Still expect scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms, however low confidence regarding overall severe
potential at this time mainly due to uncertainty on instability.

Main upper level trough/cold pool will track across the region
Sunday night into Monday. This may allow for at least isolated
showers to occur across portions of the southern Adirondacks into
southern VT. High pressure will then follow for Monday night through
Tuesday night with generally fair weather. As the high shifts east
of the region Wednesday, a warm/moist southerly flow develops with
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as a potential
front approaches from the NW.

Above normal temperatures Sunday ahead of the front, with highs in
the lower/mid 80s in valleys and 75-80 across higher terrain.
Cooler/less humid for Sunday night through Monday, with lows Sun and
Mon nights in the 40s to lower 50s, and highs Monday mainly in the
70s except 60s across higher terrain. Max temps rebound Tuesday-
Wednesday with highs in the lower/mid 80s in valleys and 75-80
across higher elevations. Humidity levels should increase on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06z/Fri...a wave of low pressure passing south of the TAF
sites will bring a period of rain to KPOU through 09Z/Thu, with
spotty light showers/sprinkles possible elsewhere. Generally VFR
conditions are expected despite these showers.

The showers should end shortly before daybreak. Some patchy low
stratus clouds may develop between 10Z-14Z/Thu, producing MVFR Cigs.
There could be some patchy ground fog developing during this time as
well, however overall probability is low enough to preclude mention
at this time.

Cigs should become VFR by early afternoon, with mainly VFR
conditions then prevailing through this evening. Isolated showers
may develop between 14Z-19Z/Thu at KGFL, KALB and KPSF as an upper
level disturbance passes by.

Light/variable winds will become west to northwest shortly after
daybreak and increase to 8-15 KT by late morning, with some gusts up
to 25 KT possible. West/northwest winds will gradually decrease
toward and after sunset to 5-10 KT.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL