829
FXUS61 KALY 271419
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1019 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Morning clouds give way to increasing sun today as cooler and
breezy conditions ensue with some spotty showers north of
Albany. We turn chilly tonight as high pressure takes control of
the Northeast. After a sunny and seasonably cool Friday,
chances for rain and thunderstorms return for the weekend ahead
our next cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1019 AM EDT...Main surface cold front is off the coast of
the Northeast, while a secondary boundary associated with the
leading edge of the upper level trough remains over the region
this morning. A few spotty light showers have developed over the
Adirondacks, but this activity is fairly light and brief. A few
showers are possible through the early to mid afternoon hours
across northern areas as this boundary slides through, but most
of the region will remain dry. Visible satellite imagery shows
sky cover currently varying between partly to mostly cloudy,
with the most clouds across northern and high terrain areas.

Since the cooler air mass will be delayed under after the
frontal passage this afternoon, temperatures today should still
end up seasonably warm (albeit cooler than recent days) rising
into the mid to upper 70s with low 80s for the Hudson Valley
areas from the Capital District southward. The sfc pressure
gradient will remain strong between the departing frontal
systems and incoming high pressure building into the Great
Lakes. In addition the pressure gradient, much drier air
filtering into the area will support deep boundary layer,
allowing for gusty winds today. In fact, expecting west to
northwest winds to become sustained up to 10-15kts with gusts up
to 20-25kts. The strongest winds will set-up down the Mohawk
Valley into the Greater Capital District, northern Taconics into
Berkshire County.

Behind the departing secondary bounday, skies turn mainly
sunny/clear by late afternoon as northwest winds usher in
noticeably cooler and drier air mass. PWATs only around 0.50"
overspread eastern NY and western New England and dew points
quickly tumble into the low 50s to even upper 40s in the higher
terrain areas. Temperatures quickly respond to the loss of
insolation and the dry air mass falling into the 60s to low 70s
by sunset.

Increasing subsidence in the wake of our departing shortwave
trough will allow high pressure building east of the Great Lakes
to strengthen as it takes control of the Northeast tonight.
Clear skies and calm winds will support ideal radiational
cooling and with PWATs dropping under 0.50", dew points will
fall into the 40s. Favored the NBM 5th and 10th percentile
guidance for overnight lows tonight as temperatures should
approach their respective dew points and drop into the mid to
upper 40s (low 50s in the mid-Hudson Valley) throughout much of
eastern NY and western New England. Pockets of upper 30s could
even occur in the southern Adirondacks and spine of the southern
Greens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Large scale subsidence and a 1020hPa high overhead on Friday
will support abundant sunshine with very low humidity and light
winds. After a chilly start, temperatures will warm in response
to the June sunshine climbing into the mid to upper 70s. With
dew points remaining rather low in the 40s and PWATs still near
or under 0.50", it will feel quite comfortable, especially for
those who are sensitive to humidity.

Clear skies Friday evening will fade behind increasing clouds as
high pressure slides off the New England coast and return
southwesterly flow ensues. Temperatures should remain mild
thanks to the increasing clouds and increasing warm air and
moisture advection with overnight lows only dropping into the
50s to around 60.

Cloudy skies remain in place for Saturday as southwesterly flow
continues over the Northeast ahead of broad troughing
developing in the Great Lakes. A warm front will be approaching
from the south but we remain mainly to its north on Saturday.
With the warm sector still to our south, temperatures look similar
to Friday, only rising into the mid to upper 70s with around 80
in the Hudson Valley near and south of Albany. Humidity, on the
other hand, will be noticeably higher compared to Friday as dew
points rebound into the 60s. The sfc pressure gradient ahead of
the incoming warm front/precipitation and high pressure off
shore will tighten as well, giving us rather breezy conditions.

As the leading edge of the warm nose and a mid-level shortwave
overspreads the region from west to east Saturday afternoon,
showers and some thunderstorms gradually track eastward into our
area and we trend POPs upwards with likely POPs extending into
the southern Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley but only chance POPs
in the Hudson Valley and western New England where showers
should be delayed until mid to late afternoon. The low-level
levels remain dry to start so it may take some time for the
column to become saturated and allow showers to reach the
ground.

While the mid and upper level southwesterly wind field
strengthens supporting rather high deep layer shear values
ranging 40 to 50kts, instability is lacking giving the cloudy
skies and cooler temperatures ahead of the warm sector. We still
mention chances for thunderstorms Saturday P.M given dew points
rising into the 60s but the stronger instability remains
displaced mainly to our west in western NY/PA where SPC has
introduced a slight risk for severe weather. Relatively higher
instability spreads eastward into more of our area Saturday
night and with deep layer shear values remaining strong, the
severe weather potential may clip our western areas, namely the
western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks. SPC has
introduced a marginal risk for severe weather for these areas
and while shear will certainly be strong enough to support
organized convection, severe weather will be contingent upon
the amount of instability that can spread eastward.

Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms continue tracking into
eastern NY and western New England Saturday night as strong
southwesterly winds ahead of the approaching trough maintain a
fetch of warm/moist air into the Northeast. Expect a humid
Saturday night with lows barely dropping out of the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front tracks south/east across the region Sunday. However, the
deeper moisture and greatest instability might be shunted south and
east of the region by afternoon as a pre-frontal trough potentially
moves through. Still expect scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms, however low confidence regarding overall severe
potential at this time mainly due to uncertainty on instability.

Main upper level trough/cold pool will track across the region
Sunday night into Monday. This may allow for at least isolated
showers to occur across portions of the southern Adirondacks into
southern VT. High pressure will then follow for Monday night through
Tuesday night with generally fair weather. As the high shifts east
of the region Wednesday, a warm/moist southerly flow develops with
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as a potential
front approaches from the NW.

Above normal temperatures Sunday ahead of the front, with highs in
the lower/mid 80s in valleys and 75-80 across higher terrain.
Cooler/less humid for Sunday night through Monday, with lows Sun and
Mon nights in the 40s to lower 50s, and highs Monday mainly in the
70s except 60s across higher terrain. Max temps rebound Tuesday-
Wednesday with highs in the lower/mid 80s in valleys and 75-80
across higher elevations. Humidity levels should increase on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12z/Fri...some patchy ground fog has developed at KGFL,
and may briefly develop at KPOU within the next hour. Any fog
and associated IFR/LIFR conditions should lift by 13Z/Thu.

Some patchy MVFR Cigs may develop and affect KPSF and KALB
through 15Z/Thu. Thereafter, Cigs should become VFR, with
mainly VFR conditions then prevailing through this evening.
Isolated showers may develop between 15Z-18Z/Thu at KGFL, KALB
and KPSF as an upper level disturbance passes by, with mainly
VFR conditions prevailing despite any showers.

VFR conditions should continue tonight, although there is a
slight chance some patchy ground fog could briefly develop at
KGFL around 08Z-10Z/Fri.

Light/variable winds will become west to northwest and increase
to 8-15 KT by mid to late morning, with some gusts up to 25 KT
possible. West/northwest winds will gradually decrease around
sunset to 5-10 KT, then become light/variable to calm later
tonight.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL