026
FXUS64 KAMA 292345
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
645 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Cold front has made its way to near Highway 60 and is finally
showing signs of stalling as expected. CU has begun to form near
and behind the boundary with even some moderate CU noted. The
dewpoints behind the front remain in the 60s, but some 40s
dewpoints have pushed across the northern half of Kansas with a
subtle second surge. Thunderstorms are expected to develop first
near the boundary with Amarillo on the southern edge of the
activity this aftn. A second area of development associated with
a mid-upr level S/WV and elevated portions of the front is
expected later this evening moving out of NM into the NW
Panhandles. Severe parameters all favor areas further north behind
the front and this activity has the greater chance for becoming
more organized and widespread. ML CAPE across the north is
forecast to 1500-2500 j/kg and effective bulk shear is forecast to
remain 40-50 kts. Warmer mid level temps seem to favor wind over
hail for the greatest threat. High moisture content and a modest
h85 LLJ reaching 25-30 kts will also aid in providing threats for
heavy rainfall and flooding. HREF probs indicate up to 40-60%
probs of 1 hour rainfall rates of 1 inch or greater and storm
total probs exceeding 3 inches are around 10-20% across the north.
We strongly considered a flood watch across the north-northwest,
but held off as there are some concerns that several cams have
recently backed off convection in the northwest. This seems to be
tied to models that are more agressive with the dry air moving
into the area from the north which leads to greater capping and
much less convection. If it becomes more apparently things are
coming together (18Z models back to favoring this), we may need
to consider a short lead flash flood watch. SPC continues to
maintain a slight risk for the NW and WPC is maintaining a slight
risk for flooding in similar region.

Some lingering showers will be possible tomorrow. There are CAMS
attempting to convect weakly along the stalled boundary mainly
across the east given very moist conditions, but w/ H5 negative
vorticity building overhead and ridging extends over the area
from the SE and H5 temps warming to an impressively warm -2 deg C.
This suggest any activity would almost certainly not be severe
and may not exceed shower status. After lingering chc pops
(30-40%) across the NE in the morning, aftn POPs are being held at
10-20%.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The H5 high building over the area Sun into Mon will lead to hot
temps on Monday and Tuesday. PDC will likely exceed heat advisory
criteria both days and a few other typical hot spots in the area
may also approach advisory levels as well. The high will
transition east allowing H5 heights and temps to fall. S/WVs in SW
flow followed by NW flow aloft, high moisture levels and another
frontal boundary (eventually) will lead to potential for daily
convection Tue night through Sat night. Obviously details are
sketchy at this point, but certainly it appears an active period
could impact holiday activities.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Main concern in the very near term (through 03z) will be the
ongoing thunderstorms near AMA, then the concern shifts to the
northern sites for TSRA between 03z and and 09z. Storms near AMA
are staying just outside the TAF site currently, but lightning
persists within the 10 mile radius. Outflow from these storms
could also lead to development over AMA, so will maintain the
tempo group for TSRA through 03z. Uncertainty is higher for
impacts at KDHT and KGUY, so mentions are more limited for TS.
Confidence does increase after 06z through about 15z for MVFR/IFR
cigs at KDHT and KGUY and areas across the northern combined
Panhandles. Fog can`t be ruled out (especially near KGUY), but
confidence too low to include at this time.

Ward

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                71  93  72  97 /  50  20   0   0
Beaver OK                  65  84  70  99 /  60  40  10   0
Boise City OK              62  88  68  96 /  70  20   0   0
Borger TX                  72  95  75 103 /  60  20   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              70  95  73  99 /  60  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  70  93  71  97 /  30  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               73  93  72  97 /  20  20   0   0
Dalhart TX                 65  92  68  98 /  60  20   0   0
Guymon OK                  64  87  69  99 /  70  30  10   0
Hereford TX                72  95  70  97 /  30  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                68  88  72  99 /  50  30   0   0
Pampa TX                   70  90  71  98 /  50  20   0   0
Shamrock TX                73  94  73 100 /  20  20   0   0
Wellington TX              75  96  75 100 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TXZ001-002.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...88