359
FXUS64 KAMA 280548
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1248 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Through tonight, the upper level ridge of high pressure has temporarily
flattened and become depressed south of the forecast area. This has
caused the upper level flow to become more zonal or westerly, and should
steer most showers and thunderstorms generally eastward compared to
the past few days. The latest crop of showers and storms has begun
developing over southeast Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and the
western OK Panhandle. Given the overall upper level zonal flow, it
appears the OK Panhandle and far northern Texas Panhandle will have
the best chance for showers and thunderstorms throughout the evening
hours, with values lowering southward through the southern Texas
Panhandle. Pops were created in this manner. It appears some drier
air at the surface and aloft may move into southwest sections of the
Texas Panhandle based on latest short range models, and this may limit
precipitation formation. A few storms may become strong to severe,
with damaging winds and large hail the primary hazards. Also, the
strongest storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, which
may lead to flooding or flash flooding.

For Friday and Friday night, heights rise some as the upper level ridge
of high pressure reasserts itself over the southern plains. This will
result in another day of high temperatures near or exceeding 100 degrees
across most of the area. Additional Heat Advisories may be needed in
locations where the Heat Index or temperature equals or exceeds 105
degrees. The cap may strengthen through the day on Friday so have kept
pops below mentionable for this package. Pops return Friday night with
highest values across north central and northeastern sections as a weak
cold front moves through the OK Panhandle and most of the northern
Texas Panhandle by 12Z Saturday.

02

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

For Saturday and Saturday night, the aforementioned weak cold
front is slated to move through the southern Texas Panhandle
Saturday morning and stall near or just south of the forecast
area. Otherwise, the upper level ridge of high pressure is
progged to remain intact across the southern plains. A minor upper
level shortwave trof is forecast to round the top of the ridge
and across the northern sections late Saturday afternoon and
night. Given sufficient daytime heating and atmospheric instability,
this feature, coupled with the close proximity of the weak cold
frontal boundary and ample moisture should result in the development
of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and night. A few
storms may become severe during the late afternoon and evening
hours, with damaging winds and large hail the primary hazards in
addition to heavy rainfall and the corresponding potential for
flooding or flash flooding.

Precipitation chances diminish on Sunday as the upper level ridge
of high pressure remains anchored over the southern plains. The
ridge is progged to slide to the east of the region on Tuesday and
Wednesday with our forecast area on the western flank of this
ridge. The associated southwest flow aloft should help steer
moisture associated with the summer monsoon into the area with
chances for showers and thunderstorms returning Tuesday night and
Wednesday. NBM pops and temperatures reflect the above reasoning
and were accepted for all periods of the long term forecast.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

TAFs are VFR for the 06Z period. A small chance for thunderstorms
exist near the GUY terminal tomorrow evening; however, confidence
is not high enough for impacts to include mentions of thunder in
the TAFs. Low level winds will be on the breezy side tonight, with
sustained winds for the morning hours ranging between 10-15 kts.
Later on today, winds will increase at AMA were sustains should
range between 20-25 kts, gusting to 35 kts at times. Strong winds
will then expire by the evening hours.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX               101  72  96  72 /  10  20  20  50
Beaver OK                 103  69  90  67 /  10  40  20  50
Boise City OK              97  66  85  64 /  10  20  30  50
Borger TX                 105  74 100  72 /  10  20  20  50
Boys Ranch TX             103  71  94  70 /  10  20  20  50
Canyon TX                 100  72  94  70 /  10  10  20  40
Clarendon TX              101  76  97  73 /  10  10  20  40
Dalhart TX                100  67  88  65 /  10  20  30  50
Guymon OK                 101  67  88  66 /  10  30  20  50
Hereford TX               102  72  96  71 /   0  10  20  40
Lipscomb TX               104  72  96  70 /  10  30  20  50
Pampa TX                  102  73  96  71 /  10  20  20  50
Shamrock TX               104  76 100  74 /   0  10  20  40
Wellington TX             105  78 101  76 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...55