224
FXUS63 KARX 090802
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
302 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy today with gusts up to 35mph possible.

- Showers/storm chances increase for Tuesday through Thursday.
  Current guidance is unclear on the severe potential for these
  days.

- Cooler through the early week with highs in the upper 60s to
  mid 70s. Warming trend for the second half of this week with
  temperatures trending above normal with highs reaching the
  upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Today through Monday: Dry, Windy Today

Windy conditions this morning through the afternoon are expected in
the wake a of cold frontal passage with wind gusts ranging from 25
to 30kts. Cyclonic flow remains in the area with a series of
shortwaves passing through the region. Mostly dry conditions
expected, although moisture transport does increase Sunday
afternoon, so a shower or two can not be ruled out if we can get
more instability than what guidance is suggesting. CAMS are not that
excited to have good precipitation chances and any shower potential
they do have is confined to eastern Wisconsin for Sunday.
Temperatures for Sunday and Monday will remain near or slightly
below normal with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Tuesday through the Weekend: Warming Trend, Stormy Midweek

Shortwave ridging moves into the area on Tuesday and flattens out by
Wednesday. This will allow a couple of shortwave troughs to pass
through the region on Tuesday and Wednesday/Thursday. The first
trough has more model agreement than the latter trough. Guidance
continues to show decent shear, 20 to 35kts of deep layer shear,
associated with a 60 to 80kt 250hPa jet over the northern US, MLCAPE
up to 1500 J/kg, and rising dewpoints with the help of southwest
flow as we go through the day on Tuesday. Temperatures for Tuesday
are trending warmer than previous forecasts with the aforementioned
southwest flow as highs are approaching the low 80s for southeast
Minnesota and northeast Iowa. With these ingredients in place, the
CSU machine learning probabilities have a 5 to 15% chance of severe
weather occurring just to the west of the local area. We will
continue to monitor this severe weather potential as we get closer
to Tuesday.

Southwest flow remains over the area through Thursday which will
help to warm up the area to the upper 70s to mid 80s for Wednesday
and Thursday. Current guidance has a shortwave trough moving through
on Wednesday with a trailing wave on Thursday. There are some
uncertainties in the strength of these disturbances and timing in
precipitation chances. Similar to the Wednesday storm, CSU machine
learning probabilities gives the area a 5 to 15% chance of severe
weather on Thursday. After these shortwaves pass through the area,
ensemble and deterministic guidance have good agreement on the
ridge strengthening for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Upstream showers moving southeast from west-central Wisconsin
will be near term forecast discrepancy, potentially providing
VCSH at KLSE near 09.06Z TAF issuance. Flight restrictions
remain nil regardless with 10,000 ft cigs. Increased winds will
be subsequent forecast impact Sunday. Tightened surface
pressure gradient and weak cold air advection will be primary
forcing mechanisms aided by diurnal heating. Have kept
increased winds at KRST into the nighttime hours with current
timing of dry frontal passage. Will be subsequent forecast
detail to iron out as loss of diurnal heating and the narrow
area of higher winds will provide a rapid decrease.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION...JAR