333
FXUS61 KBGM 291852
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
252 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will persist through the evening
hours with cooler and drier air making its way into the region
from the northwest after midnight. Tomorrow, a few stronger
thunderstorms are possible in Northeast PA in the late morning
and early afternoon but most of the region will stay dry.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM Update...

Thick cloud cover and widespread rain has kept most of the
region cooler this afternoon but dew points have been able to
creep up with the southerly flow at the surface. A warm front is
trying to push northward with the nose of the surface warm
front into central PA to western NY already. As of now, surface
based CAPE is all S and W of our region but as these showers
move through, there will be couple hours of thinner clouds as
well as time for that warm front to make its way into NEPA and
the Southern Tier of NY. Still there is more showers that exist
in the warm sector than many of the models show so right now, it
is likely there will be less instability this afternoon and
evening for our area. Despite the lower CAPE, the BGM radar
vertical wind profile has continued to show robust speed and
directional shear in the low levels with the 3 hour average
0-1km SRH over 400m2/s2 and 0-3km shear near 40 knots. If a
storm can take on an easterly component that would maximize use
of the environmental helicity and could produce a tornado, even
if it is just a stronger shower with no lightning. Luckily
without high amounts of instability, anything that does form
will be on the weaker side.

Tonight, an upper level trough begins to dig in with upper
level flow becoming more northwesterly. Morning models showed
cooler and drier air making its way in faster so chances of
precipitation were lowered after midnight but at least kept at a
slight chance as there is enough low level moisture in place
still for isolated to scattered showers and drizzle.

Tomorrow, a cold front moves through and the timing of that
front will determine tomorrows severe risk. As of now, it looks
like the cold front makes it through most of the region in the
morning with instability mainly developing in NEPA. There will
be nearly 50 knots of 0-6 km shear present so any storm that
develops ahead or along the front in the late morning and early
afternoon could become strong with all hazards possible. The 12Z
HREF mean CAPE and 2m Temperatures do show that there was a
slight slowing of the front so it is possible that we may see
SPC bring the slight risk for tomorrow farther west if the trend
continues with this evenings runs. HREF CAPE spread for the
25-75 percentile for AVP is 1300 to 2500 J/kg while BGM is from
roughly 1000 to 1300 J/kg so the risk will increase as you head
SE tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM Update...

With a shortwave trough departing Monday morning, and sprawling
surface high pressure building in, the first half of the week ahead
will be dry. Breezy NW winds Monday will keep temperatures in the
lower-70s for most of area, except mid-70s for the Wyoming Valley.
Southerly return flow will bring increasingly warm temperatures
Tuesday into Wednesday, with highs reaching the 80s. A cold front
will be approaching the area from the west late Wednesday, but there
is reasonable confidence that most of the area will stay dry through
the afternoon with  the only mentionable PoPs in the extreme western
edges of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
250 PM Update...

A cold front will move into the area Wednesday night, bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Forecast uncertainty ramps up
beginning Thursday as upper level flow goes zonal, and the front
looks to get hung up somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic. Thursday is a
bit up in the air in terms of precip chances depending on how far
south the front can push before stalling out.

Either way, it looks to return north as a warm front on Friday, as a
weak shortwave trough and associated surface wave ripples along the
front. Early indications suggest another approaching cold front
looks to bring the chance for showers back for yet another weekend
appearance.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
With widespread showers through the area this afternoon, many
terminals are seeing MVFR with brief IFR conditions. Cloud cover
and heavier rain that is out there currently has reduced the
thunderstorm risk for much of the NY terminals. AVP has warmed
up and has a better chance at seeing some stronger storms that
produce IFR or worse vis from heavy rain. Tonight, it is looking
a bit drier behind the surface front that moves through this
afternoon so showers were ended faster at terminals. If we do
clear out then ELM has a chance to fog but it does not look like
the clouds will clear in time right now. Tomorrow is looking
better with all NY terminals seeing VFR conditions by 18Z. AVP
could still deal with some thunderstorms late morning into early
afternoon but kept thunder out of the TAFs given uncertainty in
progression of the front.

Outlook...

Sunday...Restrictions from showers and thunderstorms possible.

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...AJG