761
FXUS61 KBOX 261141
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
741 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid today with a risk for showers and thunderstorms
especially late this afternoon into the evening. Though there is
a risk for some spotty activity early this afternoon. Some
storms could turn strong to perhaps severe bringing risk of
strong winds and heavy downpours, which may lead to flooding.
Drier weather late in the week along with decreasing humidity.
However, we enter a warming trend with increasing humidity into
the weekend, which will also increase our chances for showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No major changes to the ongoing forecast this morning. Still
getting some signals for an earlier round of showers early this
afternoon before the main event arrives towards sunset, or even
later. Mainly brought the forecast back in line with observed
trends.

Previous Discussion...

Highlights

* Hot and muggy today. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms
  possible across southern New England late this afternoon into
  tonight. Main threats are strong to perhaps damaging wind
  gusts and heavy downpours, which may lead to localized
  flooding.

Will be setup in a quasi-zonal flow pattern through a good
portion of this timeframe. Could see a weak/subtle shortwave
lift in from the central/eastern Great Lakes this morning into
the afternoon. A more substantial trough digs into the
central/eastern Great Lakes by this afternoon. This trough becomes
neutral to perhaps slightly negatively tilted as it digs into
the eastern Great Lakes this evening and lifts through New
England tonight. A pre-frontal trough slides across southern New
England late this morning/early afternoon. A cold front slides
through this evening/tonight.

Confidence unfortunately a bit lower than would like being
inside 24 hours, but there is the risk for isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms today/tonight. Main questions at this point
revolve around this earlier pre-frontal trough and if it has
enough juice to trigger showers/storms earlier today. If this
happens what will be the impacts for the activity pushing in
late this afternoon/tonight with the cold front. Details below.

Late morning/early afternoon....

Overall guidance in pretty good agreement on the pre-frontal
trough sliding in late this morning/early afternoon. Guidance
split on if there is enough low level moisture and how unstable
the environment will be as this feature is moving through. There
is also little run to run consistency amongst some CAM, which
somewhat makes sense given the weak-ish forcing. The dry
solutions are the latest GFS/FV3/HRRR (capped with slightly
lower dewpoints), while the ECMWF/GDPS/ARW and NSSLWRF depict a
line of activity developing earlier in the afternoon. The
NAM/NAMNest not as robust with this line as the aforementioned
pieces of guidance, so is essentially the compromise between the
two. Leaned more toward the majority of guidance at this point,
but have only capped us at slight chances heading into the
afternoon due to uncertainty. Should see a tongue of a few
hundred to perhaps 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE along with 7-9 degree low
level lapse rates. There are also hints that there would be a
lingering remnant EML overhead in line with this activity.
However, deep layer shear (0-6 km bulk shear) a bit more meh in
the 20-30 kt range. Any of this activity could disrupt or
enhance anything that develops later today/tonight, so will be
interesting to see what happens.

Afternoon through tonight...

Risk higher for more widespread showers and thunderstorms
across southern New England during this timeframe, especially
late this afternoon/tonight. Any early day activity could
potentially work over the environment, but guidance tends to
struggle with this (though latest NSSLWRF does show this well).
Main question will be can the front arrive quick enough that it
can really tap into waning instability/increasing stability as
we head into the evening. Have leaned on the consensus of
guidance at this point. This brings fairly widespread showers
and thunderstorms to the region. Could have a few hundred to
perhaps 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE to work with. As the front
approaches will see deep layer shear increase to 30-50+ kts. The
mid level lapse rates become quite poor fairly quickly, but
still could see some elevated low level lapse rate until the
evening. Our PWATs also significantly increase to 1.5 to 2
inches and will have warm cloud layer depths of 3.5-4 km, so
heavy downpours will be possible with any storms. Fortunately
the system is fairly progressive, but latest HREF LPMM
indicating could have a few spots that see over 3 inches of
rain. Looks like heaviest would be late evening into the
overnight hours and could cause issues if it falls over some of
our more flood prone areas. Given this setup do think there
could be some strong to perhaps damaging winds as well.

Given the uncertainty during this timeframe think that SPC
Marginal Risk for severe suffices. Think that the WPC ERO
Marginal is also fine. Though will note for the severe risk
that the Nadocast and CSU ML still really heavily highlighting
a wind threat, maximized from CT into portions of the interior.
For timing the latest 00Z NCAR HRRR Neural Network really
highlights much of our region for a wind threat with the timing
being with the night activity. Could end up seeing more seeing
more scattered vs isolated risk if these ML guidance sources pan
out. Stay tuned as this is a tricky forecast and ultimately
will boil down to the mesoscale details.

Bumped up our high temperatures to the 75th percentile of
guidance given the westerly flow through the day should allow
for downsloping. The result are highs in the 80s for most, but
will have some spots in the low 90s across the Merrimack and CT
Valley. Muggy with dew points into the 60s, but not oppressive
enough where any heat advisories would be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
* Any lingering showers/storms move offshore early in the day.
  Will be dry for most other than perhaps a spot shower across
  the MA/NH/VT border during the afternoon.

Caught in cyclonic flow through this period. A trough over our
area will lift offshore early in the day, but will have another
dig into northern New England during the afternoon. High
pressure will begin to nudge in once the cold front pushes
offshore during the AM.

Main focus of the forecast was in the near term. Only major
change made was to introduce a few spotty showers across the
MA/NH/VT border during the afternoon and try to better time the
AM activity exiting. Overall though for most will be a pretty
nice day with decreasing humidity levels, albeit it may be a bit
breezy at times. High temperatures will generally be in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights:

* Dry and seasonable Fri with low humidity

* Another round of scattered showers/t-storms Sat afternoon into
  Sun. Becoming rather humid Sun.

* Dry and less humid Mon and Tue

High pressure expected to build across southern New England
from the Great Lakes Friday, then move offshore Saturday. A cold
front should move across our region Sunday into Sunday night,
with a high pressure arriving for early next week.

Looking at more of a roller coaster forecast during this time
frame. Overall, expecting near normal temperatures with
comfortable humidity for much of this time. The exception looks
to be this weekend, with a brief period of above normal
temperatures and high humidity Saturday night into Sunday night
ahead of the approaching cold front.

The main question this weekend will be the intensity of
convection as it moves across our region. Consensus of the
guidance does not raise many alarms, with model soundings
generally showing a modest inversion in the 800-650 mb layer.
That said, there are discrepancies in the guidance details, and
given the time range, am not ready to completely dismiss the
idea just yet. At this juncture, the most likely outcome is for
widespread showers to arrive some time late Saturday into
Saturday evening, then depart Sunday night. This is not to say
it will be raining this entire time. Will take some more time to
pin down these details.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today and Tonight...Moderate confidence.

VFR to start. Will have S to SW winds at 10-20 kts with gusts of
20-30 kts today. Those these gusts most frequent into the
afternoon. There could be some isolated storms early this
afternoon as a prefrontal trough slides through. Confidence not
high enough on the coverage (and if activity develops) at this
juncture to include in TAF. Have only hinted at with 5 kft
ceilings, but may be needed in future updates. Risk higher for
scattered showers and storms roughly 20Z into the
evening/overnight where conditions deteriorate to MVFR/IFR with
localized LIFR. Some storms could be strong and produce heavy
downpours. Have tried to nail down this risk at all terminals
where is most likely with the PROB30. Winds ease to around 5-10
kts this evening, but will quickly shift to the W tonight from
west to east as the cold front slides through (though may not be
until Thu AM for Cape terminals).

Thursday...High confidence in trends, moderate in exact timing.

Any lingering MVFR/IFR improves to VFR during the AM as
showers/storms exit. Winds out of the W at 5-10 kts with gusts
of 15-20 kts.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

VFR for much of today. Could have an isolated shower/storm early
this afternoon, but risk higher tonight where conditions
deteriorate to MVFR/IFR. Have tried to highlight best shot with
PROB30. Winds remain too strong out of the SW for sea breeze to
develop today.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

VFR for much of today. Could have an isolated shower/storm early
this afternoon, but risk higher late this afternoon/tonight
where conditions deteriorate to MVFR/IFR. Have highlighted best
shot for thunderstorms with PROB30.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night through Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
SHRA likely, slight chance TSRA.

Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA likely,
slight chance TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Small Craft Advisories extended for the southern and eastern
outer waters due to elevated seas into Thu.

Today...High confidence.

Winds remain out of the SW/SSW at 15-25 kts with gusts of 20-30
kts. Seas 4-6 ft across the southern waters and eastern outer
waters. Scattered thunderstorms could spread into the waters
late in the afternoon/evening.

Tonight...High confidence.

Winds SW 15-25 kts with gusts of 20-30 kts. Winds may start to
shift to the WSW/W toward daybreak as the cold front crosses
western portions of the area. Seas 5-7 ft. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms continue into the morning.

Thursday..High confidence.

Cold front crosses waters, which will shift winds to W during
the AM. Still could have some lingering showers/storms crossing.
Winds become lighter and shift to the S/SW during the afternoon.
Seas across the outer waters diminishing to 2-4 ft during the
afternoon.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Friday through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers likely, isolated
thunderstorms.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for MAZ020>024.
RI...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ231>234-236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk/BL
NEAR TERM...Belk/BL
SHORT TERM...BL
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/BL
MARINE...Belk/BL