756
FXUS61 KBTV 261155
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
755 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry and warm conditions today will give way to a soaking
rain tonight. Cooler, drier air will filter southward on
Thursday, setting the stage for a chillier night. Our pattern of
alternating wet and dry periods will continue for the weekend
as showers become increasingly likely during the day Saturday
into Saturday night. Moderate rainfall amounts are expected with
temperatures remaining seasonable.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 755 AM EDT Wednesday...Tricky forecast for sky cover and
precipitation chances this morning as a couple clusters of
showers following an axis of greater 925-850 millibar moisture
slides eastward over northern portions of northeastern New York
into adjacent northernmost Vermont. Not far to the south, skies
are mostly clear and will remain so. The HRRR/RAP seems to have
captured the showers well enough, so have bumped up chances of
showers while quickly shifting them eastward out of eastern
Vermont towards 11 AM. Brief downpours will be possible in these
showers, but only around 0.1" of rain will fall in any given
location this morning.

Previous Discussion...
A very active jet stream across the northern US/southern Canada
will continue to push weak frontal systems across our area
through the next 36 hours. In this period, our flow will be
mainly westerly rather than southerly, which will minimize the
heat and humidity needed for thunderstorms. So as we saw last
night, rain during this period is not expected to be accompanied
by thunderstorms. However, good moisture convergence and large
scale upper level divergence will be capable of producing decent
rainfall rates. This morning there will be a subtle low level
boundary approaching that will help turn surface winds more
westerly than southerly as they currently. It has sparked a
cluster of showers with embedded thunder in southern Ontario,
which is moving eastward towards southern St. Lawrence County.
As such, while most areas should be partly to mostly sunny, a
small portion of the region may see some rain.

The main "storm" for the near term will roll through quickly tonight,
driven by a vigorous upper level shortwave that is currently
over northern Minnesota. It will be steered towards us in the
long wave trough over the eastern US. Late this afternoon, far
northwestern New York is most favored to see some showers out
ahead of the more widespread shower activity, given better
surface convergence ahead of a cold front dropping southward.
This front will sag southward resulting in low level
northwesterly flow across the region while the trough moves
overhead, which is why rain looks highly predictable over the
area with minimal instability. Precipitation chances ramp up to
near 100% between 10 PM and 2 AM, with rain gradually shifting
eastward and out of the area during the early morning hours.
Steadiest and heaviest rain probably will be over our southern
areas, but it is always difficult to pinpoint this type of thing
even in the near term. NBM mean 6 hour precipitation amounts
are generally in the 0.2" to 0.3" range, with 24 hour totals
through 8 AM Thursday of 0.6" to 0.9" at the 75th percentile
looking like a reasonable heaviest amount. So no significant hydrological
impacts are expected.

Tomorrow behind the front and shortwave trough, some shallow, scattered
showers should develop thanks to northwest flow and the
enhanced orographic lift associated with our terrain. As cold
air advection continues to dry us out during the day and mid
level heights rise, forcing for precipitation will wane as skies
trend sunny. High temperatures will be notably cooler than the
last couple of days, roughly 10 degrees below today`s forecast
highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 326 AM EDT Wednesday...Overall nearly perfect late June wx
expected from Thurs night thru Friday with 1020mb high pres directly
overhead by 12z Friday. Still monitoring the potential for some
patchy valley fog/br btwn 07-11z Friday associated with clear skies,
light bl winds, and lingering low level moisture from recent
rainfall. Still some question with wind profiles as soundings show
10 to 15 knots just off the deck and most areas will be 12 to 18 hrs
removed from rainfall. So have not included in fcst attm. Next
target of opportunity wl be in the low temp department on Friday
morning, as NBM at SLK is calling for 42F, thinking mid/upper 30s is
likely, as latest MAV/MET is 33/36 respectively. Some localized
patchy frost is possible near SLK early Friday morning as the turn
has occurred. Friday continues to look like a classic North Country
Chamber of Commerce type day with plenty of sunshine, comfortable
temps and low humidity. Highs mostly in the upper 60s to mid 70s on
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 326 AM EDT Wednesday...Large scale synoptic pattern features
fast/progressively flow aloft acrs the northern CONUS, with several
embedded s/w`s and associated boundaries. This wl result in an
unsettled scenario for the upcoming weekend with intervals of
showers likely both Sat and Sun, but neither day wl be a complete
washout. Sunday looks a bit drier with less areal coverage of
precip, given developing dry layer btwn 850- 500mb, but instability
is slightly better on Sunday, supporting potential for a few
thunderstorms. Profiles on Sat are rather stable looking with deep
layer moisture in place and pw values in the 1.75 to 2.0 by 00z
Sunday. A cool and unsettled day is likely on Saturday with breezy
south/southwest winds, especially SLV/CPV. Based on model agreement,
confidence is increasing of many areas experiencing a wetting
rainfall on Sat/Sat night, with greatest potential and highest pops
btwn 00-06z Sat night. Feel threat for flash flooding is <10% attm,
but potential for at least 0.5 inch of qpf in heavier showers is 60
to 70% acrs portions of our cwa on Sat into Sunday, with WPC
maintaining a marginal risk in their latest day 4 ERO.

Highs on Sat look to struggle in the mid 60s mtns to mid 70s warmest
valley locations, given overcast skies and areas of showers. Temps
fall very little Sat night with clouds/precip and southerly winds
prevailing, along with increasing dwpts, anticipate lows 60s to
locally near 70F.

Additional s/w energy and secondary cold frnt feature swings acrs
our cwa on Monday with potential for additional showers, before sfc
high pres with cooler/drier wx returns for the middle of next week.
Temps warm back into the mid 70s to lower 80s for Sunday, with some
breaks in the clouds, but cool back into the upper 60s to mid 70s on
Monday with lows generally upper 40s to near 60F. No long duration
heat waves or widespread hazardous wx is anticipated over the next 4
to 7 days based on our crnt fcst.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12z Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected,
except at SLK where ceilings are at 800 feet this morning. Think
these IFR conditions will linger for about 2 hours before low
clouds scatter out. Scattered showers this morning have
developed with largely MVFR visibilities at PBG, BTV, and EFK
possible. More widespread SHRA will rapidly overspread the
airspace between 00Z and 03Z and exit between 08Z and 10Z. Some
MVFR conditions associated with any heavier showers will be
possible, and ceilings will tend to lower with best chance of
IFR ceilings at SLK.


Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Scattered SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Kutikoff