454
FXUS61 KBTV 220714
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
314 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Much of the region will remain dry, outside some localized
precipitation chances across St. Lawrence County. The gradual
cooling trend will continue during the next several days, bringing
high temperatures from the upper 60s to mid 70s down into the lower
60s to near 70. More widespread precipitation chances are still
likely beginning Tuesday evening and continuing into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 312 AM EDT Sunday...Very little change to the overall weather
pattern is present with a quasi-stationary upper low pressure
offshore and surface high pressure nosing into the area. A subtle
surface trough is still meandering through northern New York too.
Like yesterday, this could spark a few pop up showers in St.
Lawrence County this afternoon. Otherwise, mostly dry today, with
thinning high clouds. Expect upper 60s to lower 70s east, and lower
70s to mid 70s west today. It should be another fantastic weather
day.

For tonight, the recent fog pattern should come to a temporary
close. Increasing winds at 700-1500 ft agl and incoming clouds from
the west should limit fog. Still, think some sheltered sections of
far eastern Vermont may not be exempt from fog, though. Overnight
lows will be warmest west where high clouds will start to shift into
northern New, and the Champlain Valley due to light south flow
likely remaining overnight with 50s. In cool hollows of the Dacks
and the rest of Vermont, generally 40s are expected.

About dawn on Monday, higher theta e air will edge east with return
flow trying to establish itself after being absent so many days, but
high pressure will also build southwards. Precipitation should
develop along the St. Lawrence River, but will likely dissipate as
the center of persistent surface high pressure approaches northern
Maine. Easterly flow will advect dry air that will undercut moisture
trying to advance. We could see some virga continue to propagate
east, but any rain at the surface will likely stop at the
Adirondacks. The high clouds from the weak shortwave shifting east
and the reinforced east to southeast flow will help us stay cooler
with mid 60s to near 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 312 AM EDT Sunday...Dry weather will continue to prevail
through much of the short term period with high pressure keeping
hold over the region. The ridge axis finally starts to shift
eastward Tuesday night, allowing precipitation to make some headway
into northern NY late. With rain to arrive later than previously
anticipated, we`re now expecting fewer clouds Monday night and
Tuesday, which will impact temperatures. More optimal radiational
cooling Monday night will make for another cool night with lows in
the mid 40s to low 50s. Meanwhile, have been bumped up Tuesday`s
highs a few degrees since we`re expecting more sunshine. Highs will
remain seasonable, in the mid 60s to around 70F. Tuesday night`s
lows will be similar to Monday night, though this will depend on how
quickly clouds arrive ahead of our next system.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 312 AM EDT Sunday...In general, the second half of the week is
looking unsettled, though there are still a lot of differences in
model solutions. Precipitation chances will increase on Wednesday
into Thursday as a northern stream upper trough digs into the Great
Lakes and pivots eastward. The uncertainty comes thereafter with how
this interacts and/or phases with a southern stream system over the
Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. And a potential tropical
system lifting toward the Gulf Coast by the end of the week only
further complicates matters. Note that the latest GFS phases the
northern and southern stream troughs, tapping into the tropical
moisture from the Gulf system, resulting in widespread rainfall
across our region with multiple inches of rain. This is an outlier,
however, and given the persistent pattern we`ve been in, favor
something more like the ECMWF and CMC which keep northern and
southern systems separate and shunts any tropical moisture well to
our south. Given the range of solutions, stayed close to the NBM for
this period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Mid to upper level clouds across Vermont
should limit extent and thickness of fog formation in the
valleys, mainly across Vermont. Over northern New York, some fog
has developed, but additional mid-level stratus has begun to
develop in northern New York. For now, have limited fog to
TEMPOs at KSLK for 2SM and KMPV for 4SM about 10z to 13z. Winds
south to southeast at 5 knots or less, except at KRUT with
speeds near 10 knots and KMSS which will be northeasterly.
Surface winds settle around 6 to 10 knots between 14z and 22z
before returning close to 5 knots after 22z.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Haynes