Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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540 FXUS61 KBUF 241737 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 137 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers east of Lake Ontario will end early this evening, otherwise clearing skies and cooler conditions are expected tonight. Warm and humid conditions will return Tuesday and especially Wednesday when a pair of frontal passages will support showers and potentially strong thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... The center of a 998 mb low located along the Maine coast continuing to support wrap around moisture, with a scattered coverage of showers east of Lake Ontario this afternoon. This activity has been trending downward and expect this activity to wind down between 22Z and 00Z. Cloud cover and lacking instability should limit any thunderstorm development across the North Country this afternoon. Surface high pressure will begin to build east into the lower Great Lakes tonight. Clearing skies and light winds will support good radiational cooling and support overnight low temperatures in the 50s, along with the potential for some Southern Tier valley fog and perhaps some fog east of Lake Ontario where rain lingered today. Surface high pressure will slide across and then east of the region Tuesday, with a southerly return flow developing. Some minor height rises aloft within general flat ridging will bring about a warm advective flow, sending temperatures back into the lower to mid 80s, although humidity levels should remain on the comfortable side with dewpoints staying below 60F for the most part. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The brief cool down ends Tuesday with a return to summer warmth and humidity. A warm front is advertised to work through the region Tuesday afternoon and evening. While coverage will `likely` be limited...we still can`t rule out a shower or isolated thunderstorm. A better chance of showers and thunderstorms looks to arrives Wednesday with the cold front. Right now...guidance focuses storm activity well inland from the lakes across the S. Tier, Finger Lakes region, and ENE into North Central NY. Otherwise...highs both days will be found in the 80s with dwpts climbing well into the 60s. Behind the cold frontal passage Wednesday night a much cooler and drier airmass will flood into the Lower Lakes by Thursday. Highs on Thursday will only be in the upper 60s across the higher terrain to low/mid 70s elsewhere. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure slides overhead Thursday night and then moves off to our east on Friday. Return flow on the western peripheral of the ridge will once again pump in a much warmer airmass as we head into the weekend. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will also increase beginning Friday night with the warm front, and then again with the cold front on Saturday. Highs Friday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, then even warm Saturday with solid 80s to near 90F in spots. A cool down begins to take place behind the cold front Saturday night but we still could see some showers on Sunday. Dry weather returns areawide by Monday as an expansive surface high builds into the region. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The passage of the cold front by Wednesday night will again bring in another much more refreshing airmass into western and north central New York for the latter part of the work week. This should result in dry weather Thursday and Friday with highs lower to mid 70s Thursday, then as the airmass starts to modify with surface high moving east of our area Friday will see high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dew points in the 50s will mean very tolerable humidity levels for late June. Mid summer warmth and humidity along with shower/storm chances will return as we head into the weekend as the next frontal system approaches from the west. Depending upon the timing of the frontal passage Saturday should be the more uncomfortable of the two weekend days with highs well into the 80s and higher humidity. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Moisture wrapping around an eastern Maine low keeping some scattered showers in across the eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon, but restrictions at KART look to have ended with CIGS improving to VFR. Elsewhere SKC-SCT040 for all other terminals this afternoon. Northwest winds at 10 to 15 knots will diminish by late afternoon. High pressure building in tonight with mainly SKC across the region. Some patchy fog is possible in the Southern Tier valleys and east of Lake Ontario. Restrictions are possible at both KJHW and KART after 06z. Outlook... Tuesday...VFR. Tuesday night and Wednesday...MVFR/VFR with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR. Saturday...Restrictions possible with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Small craft advisories include all of the Lake Ontario nearshore waters due to northwesterly flow through much of today. Winds and waves will begin to subside this evening as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley today through Tuesday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001>003-007. Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ004>006. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LOZ043>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMA NEAR TERM...TMA SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...TMA MARINE...EAJ/TMA