Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
903 FXUS65 KBYZ 132017 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 217 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .DISCUSSION... Through Friday Night... Satellite imagery shows widespread clear skies as flat ridge builds from the west. Surface winds have shifted to easterly. There should be some cumulus form over our southern mountains later today, otherwise dry conditions will prevail through the evening. As the ridge axis shifts slowly to the east, opening the door to SW flow aloft and increasing mid level moisture, a few light showers/sprinkles are possible late tonight and Friday morning, especially close to the mountains and foothills. The SW flow will provide a surge of warmer air, w/ 700mb temps expected to reach near +12c, resulting in temps on Friday climbing to the mid 80s to lower 90s (likely the warmest day yet of 2024 for many locations). Weak energy combined with increasing diurnal instability and moisture (both from the southwest and up the high plains) will lead to increasing thunderstorm potential in the afternoon and evening. Peak time for storms looks to be 19-03z. Forcing is weak enough such that coverage should remain scattered, but a few strong to severe storms are possible given the instability and sufficient bulk shear (30-35kts). Strong/erratic winds are the bigger risk (steep low level lapse rates and inverted-v profiles, especially west & central parts), but plume of higher instability (1500-2000 j/kg) in our far east seems to support a hail risk, despite the warm mid levels, though latest HREF does not suggest much in the way of helicity tracks. It should also be noted that recent runs of the neural network have shown increasing probabilities of severe storms in much of our area tomorrow, again mainly for wind. All of this is in line with the day2 outlook from SPC, which shows a marginal risk for our entire cwa. Stay in touch with the weather if you have outdoor plans Friday afternoon and evening. Height falls and stronger energy approaching the northern Rockies supports a chance of showers and perhaps weak thunderstorms over our west late Friday night. JKL Saturday through Thursday... Saturday, an upper level low over northwest MT will track northeast and an associated cold front will drop through the northern part of our region. Given the northern extent of the low, the best precip chances remain on the northern border of the CWA and over the mountains (20-40% chance). Gusty post-frontal NW winds will follow Saturday night. Ensembles show Sunday remaining mostly dry before bringing in a Pacific low Monday. This system will usher in cooler than average conditions with widespread precipitation possible. The chances of at least an inch of liquid water Monday through Wednesday is generally 35-45% with a 15-35% chance out east. There is still a good amount of uncertainty given disagreement of amounts between ensembles. Uncertainty also remains between ensembles for the snowfall amounts with the Beartooth Pass at about a 40-50% chance of getting at least 2 inches, with the highest peaks at about a 30-40% chance for at least 6 inches Monday through Wednesday. Keep an eye on the forecast if you have recreational/travel plans during this time. Ensembles keep conditions unsettled with a warming trend for the latter half of the forecast period. High temperatures will be in the 80s/low 90s Saturday with cooler conditions (60s/70s) following the cold front Sunday. Given ensemble disagreement, there remains a large spread in high temperatures Monday, but temps will generally be in the 60s Monday through Wednesday. Temps will warm back into the 70s for Thursday. TS && .AVIATION... VFR will prevail over the next 24 hours, with clear skies gradually giving way to increasing mid and high clouds late tonight into Friday. Isolated light showers are expected over and near the mountains & foothills late tonight and Friday morning. Thunderstorm activity will increase across the area by tomorrow afternoon. Thunderstorms could produce local MVFR/IFR in brief heavy rain, small hail and erratic wind gusts. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 056/089 058/086 050/072 048/064 048/064 044/067 046/075 13/T 32/T 20/U 36/T 75/T 22/T 22/T LVM 049/087 051/079 040/069 041/060 041/058 037/064 038/073 17/T 44/T 11/B 48/T 86/T 33/T 22/T HDN 055/091 056/090 049/074 047/068 047/065 042/069 043/077 12/T 31/U 20/B 35/W 75/T 32/T 22/W MLS 055/092 061/090 052/072 049/065 049/063 043/066 046/076 02/T 41/U 40/U 45/W 85/W 32/W 32/W 4BQ 056/094 059/093 053/074 050/069 050/067 044/066 046/076 02/T 41/U 20/U 43/W 73/T 22/W 32/W BHK 050/090 058/091 051/073 047/066 047/066 043/066 045/076 02/T 51/U 40/U 54/W 84/W 22/W 32/W SHR 052/090 055/090 046/074 047/071 044/064 040/065 042/075 02/T 21/U 10/U 33/T 63/T 32/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings