Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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921 FXUS62 KCAE 221843 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 243 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Above normal temperatures are expected today through the middle of next week. Heat Advisories may be possible from Monday through Wednesday. Expect scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms for much of the short and long term forecast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Hot and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the SE portion of the forecast area. Temperatures have climbed into the upper 80s to low 90s across the area and with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s heat index values are around 100 degrees. Expect the heat index values to remain near 100 degrees through the remainder of the afternoon then begin falling this evening as the sun angle lowers. CAE WSR-88D shows showers across the southeastern Midlands and southern CSRA associated with moisture from the tropical wave moving through far southeastern GA. With dry air remaining along and north of I-20 showers which move toward the Midlands are quickly dissipating. This will continue as the dry air will remain in place through tonight resulting in the showers and any thunderstorms dissipating with sunset with the exception being a couple showers in the far southeastern Midlands and southern CSRA. Overnight stratus will develop which will keep overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A northwest flow aloft is expected early next week with a strong upper level trough moving through New England and high pressure aloft over the Southern Plains and Mid South. Downsloping off the Appalachian Mountains should limit the diurnal convective potential and also lead to hot daytime temperatures due to compression. The competing factor is tropical moisture advected into the region from an easterly wave. The best chance for convection should be near the sea breeze front in the lower CSRA and eastern Midlands. The 12Z CAMS do not depict anything more than isolated coverage and dry air at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Highs are forecast to be in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees each day with lows in the lower to mid 70s. Heat indices are expected to be in the 100 to 105 degree range during peak heating each day which is just below advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure aloft builds over the Southeast U.S. during the middle of next week. An upper level trough passes well to the north of the region in the Wednesday to Thursday time frame which pushes a surface front into the Carolinas. There is a good probability that this front becomes diffuse over the region given the late June climatology and the ensemble forecasts. Thursday appears to be the most likely day to experience a higher chance of diurnal convection due to this diffuse frontal boundary. Otherwise isolated to scattered diurnal convection is anticipated through the end of next week. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Restrictions expected during the early morning and sunrise hours. Moisture from the tropical wave continues to move into the OGB area and struggles to reach the remaining TAF sites. This trend will continue with VCSH at OGB over the next several hours and dry conditions elsewhere. Main concern for the period will be the development of stratus during the early morning and sunrise hours. With stratus having developed last night and additional moisture moving into the area have included MVFR to IFR cigs at all terminals with the lowest conditions expected at OGB and AGS. Fog is not expected due to development of stratus. Cigs will return to VFR by mid morning as mixing increases with cumulus again developing from late morning through the end of the period. There is potential for showers and thunderstorms near the end of the period however have not included mention as coverage will be limited at that time. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances for afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions Sunday through Wednesday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$