529
FXUS61 KCAR 281002
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
602 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds today, then slowly exits to the east
through Saturday. A warm front lifts to the north Saturday
night, followed by a cold front crossing the region from Sunday
into Sunday night. High pressure then builds through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
600 am update...Added a Beach Hazards Statement for the Downeast
coast due to cold ocean temps and air temps over 70F. Also
reduced cloud cover over northern and eastern zones this
morning.

Previous discussion...
The cold upper trough currently over the area will move eastward
this morning. Ridging at the surface and aloft will build today
and tonight. The upper trough has left cool 850mb temps around
3 to 5C this morning. That will keep Friday high temps
generally near 70F thanks to a deep mixed layer. The warm spot
today will be close to the coast due to the offshore flow.
Afternoon readings near the coast may reach the low to mid 70s.

The upper trough also leaves a good deal of low level moisture
in its wake. That will produce a lot of cumulus across northern
and eastern zones this morning. There might be enough
instability to generate a few light showers by late morning in
northern zones. These clouds will tend to mix out in the
afternoon as drier air advects into the area.

The northwesterly flow this morning will feature some wind gusts
reaching up to 20 mph, but the trend will be for decreasing
winds this afternoon as the ridge builds.

For tonight, high clouds in advance of a frontal system in the
Great Lakes region will reach the forecast area and tend to
thicken and lower throughout the night. A shallow radiation
inversion will form with light winds and low temps will dip
into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A low pressure system centered over the Great Lakes will
approach from the west on Saturday. The associated warm front
will stretch well to the north, putting the region in S flow
that will gradually increase throughout the day. Models are in
good agreement with the rain showers entering into the region
from the west by the afternoon and spreading eastward into the
night. By Saturday night, QPF guidance shows the bulk of the
rainfall should be during this time. Moderate to heavy localized
rainfall is possible during the night. In addition, patchy fog
is expected across the region.

By Sunday, the cold front should begin to move into the western
border by the morning and progress throughout the day. This
front is expected to move through the region quickly with the
models in better agreement with the placement of the front. The
concern for the afternoon will be the development of strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms. Models are still unsure on the
amount of CAPE, but there seems to be a consistent target of
>1000 J/kg across the south with the sagging of the front.
Nevertheless, the strong bulk shear across the region and
steepening lapse rate along the front give confidence in
possible strong thunderstorms across the entire region. By
Sunday night, the front exits over the waters, switching winds
from the W and decreasing rain showers. With the advancement of
the high pressure after midnight, skies should begin to clear.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The surface high pressure is expected to remain in the area
through the beginning of next week, making for an inactive
pattern. Temps are expected to increase throughout the week with
Friday in the mid 80s. The next system in the form of a cold
front is expected by Thursday with a chance of showers to
follow. Disagreement in the models gave confidence in decreasing
the NBM to chance to slight chance.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR through the period outside of occasional MVFR
cigs north of HUL early Friday morning. Northwest winds will
gust up to 20 kt today, but diminish tonight.


SHORT TERM: Saturday...VFR, except for very low chance of MVFR
late at far NW terminals. S winds G15-25KT possible.

Saturday night-Sunday morning...IFR/LIFR in rain showers. South
winds 10 to 20 kt. LLWS likely Saturday night.

Sunday afternoon/evening...Becoming VFR with periods of MVFR or
lower possible in any stronger thunderstorms. NW winds G15-20KT
possible.

Late Sunday night-Tuesday...VFR. NNW winds around 5 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No significant weather is expected. Longer period
south swell will continue to diminish. Northwest winds today
will gust up to 20 kt, but no advisories are anticipated. Winds
shift back to southwest Friday night.

SHORT TERM: SCA conditions are then probable on Saturday, then
likely Saturday night and Sunday on all waters. SCA conditions
could linger into Sunday night. Sub-SCA conditions are then
forecast Monday- Tuesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...MCW
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...MCW/LaFlash
Marine...MCW/LaFlash