Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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680 FXUS64 KCRP 222325 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 625 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Isolated showers continue this afternoon along a line from Nueces/Kleberg Counties west to Webb County. No lightning has occurred with any of the showers so far today, though an isolated bolt cannot be ruled out. We should see a break in precipitation this evening into early tonight before additional isolated showers and storms develop late tonight into Sunday. These are associated with the Tropical Disturbance in the Bay of Campeche, which has a 40% chance of development through the weekend. The system remains rather disorganized and the vast majority of the impacts will remain south of our region. We could possible see some increased swells - in addition to the isolated showers/storms - but the Lower Rio Grande Valley is where the heaviest rain will occur. Elevated water levels continue today, but we are down to advisory level tides throughout the Coastal Bend. The Coastal Flood Advisory will continue through Sunday, along with the high risk of rip currents. Temperatures will continue to be near normal for this time of year (upper 80s/low-90s) with heat indices getting back into the low 100s Sunday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Key Messages: - Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts. - Minor coastal flooding and a high risk of rip currents will likely continue into early next week. A mid to upper level high pressure is forecast to be across the region Monday with a weak short wave tracking west around the southern periphery of the high pressure. This will maintain a low to medium (20-50%) chance of convection. The best chance will be across the southern Coastal Bend to southern Rio Grande Plains due to proximity to deeper moisture and the short wave. Rain chances decrease Tuesday through Thursday with the ridge providing more subsidence and drier mid/upper levels over S TX. There still remains a low (<20%) chance of convection due to moisture in the lower levels with PWATs ranging from 1.7-2.0 inches. Models prog another inverted trough to approach S TX by the end of the week, but differ on timing and amount of available moisture. Will continue with a low (<20%) chance of convection into next weekend. A gradual warming trend combined with a humid airmass will lead to increasing heat related impacts, especially by the end of the work week and into next weekend. Heat indices could reach 110 in a few spots Mon-Thu, but should generally be less than 110 most areas. Heat indices of 110-114 become more widespread and last more than a couple of hours by Friday with Heat Advisories possible. The risk of rip currents will remain high and minor coastal flooding will likely continue into next week, but is forecast to continue to gradually subside. The latest PETSS shows tide levels at Aransas Pass up to 2ft MSL (1ft inundation) during times of high tide through mid week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 VFR conditions will prevail this evening with light easterly winds. MVFR ceilings can be expected across the inland coastal plains after midnight with a few showers possible late as moisture on the northern fringe of the gulf disturbance moves into the area. Threat for showers/isolated storms will increase Sunday morning, especially across the central and western terminals from CRP-LRD. Precipitation should become more isolated by Sunday afternoon as the moisture associated with the disturbance moves west. && .MARINE... Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Moderate southeasterly winds will continue through the weekend as a disturbance passes through the Bay of Campeche. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight into tomorrow. Expect mainly a weak to moderate onshore flow to persist Monday through Friday of next week. There is a low to medium chance (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms Monday, followed by a low (15-25%) chance for showers through mid week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 78 90 79 92 / 30 50 10 30 Victoria 74 92 76 92 / 0 30 0 30 Laredo 76 92 77 94 / 20 60 20 30 Alice 75 91 75 93 / 20 50 10 30 Rockport 80 91 81 92 / 30 40 10 20 Cotulla 75 94 78 97 / 0 30 10 10 Kingsville 77 90 78 92 / 40 60 10 40 Navy Corpus 81 89 82 90 / 50 50 20 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ245-342>347- 442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ345-442-443- 447. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM/75 LONG TERM....KRS/98 AVIATION...JM/75