496
FNUS28 KWNS 182101
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 261200Z

...Synopsis...
Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of
the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over
the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing
mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread
even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry
lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of
this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and
Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind
speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although
confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this
time.

For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to
impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry
conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant
pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall
critical probabilities during this time.

Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a
shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by
D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore.
Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will
accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated
decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of
appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more
common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a
prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum
transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain.
Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical
probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming
trends preceding this weekend.

..Barnes.. 06/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$