046
FXUS63 KDDC 140522
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1222 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday evening,
  with strong outflow winds the primary threat.

- Another round of severe thunderstorms appears possible Friday
  afternoon and evening as storms roll out of eastern CO.

- Multiple chances for precipitation exist through the long term
  as upper level troughing takes hold over the western CONUS
  this weekend through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Midday water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis
indicates a ~596-dm ridge is centered over the southern plains,
while the main belt of the subtropical jet is spread out over
the northern CONUS. At the surface, broad high pressure
extending from Dixie Alley into the central/southern plains is
resulting in southwest winds across our area, and these
downsloping winds along with mostly clear skies has supported
temperatures rising well into the 90s to low 100s. A weak cold
front associated with a low pressure system in eastern Canada
has recently crossed into northern KS, and will continue to sag
southward through the remainder of the afternoon. This boundary
will be the focus for some mid-afternoon thunderstorms across
southwest KS. With temperatures in the 90s/100s and dewpoints
mixing out into the upper 50s/low 60s, MLCAPE is expected to be
in the 1500-2500 J/Kg range. However, weak northwesterly 500-mb
flow will limit deep layer shear to 20-25 kts, which will act to
limit storm organization. That said, latest HREF does depict a
semi-organized linear convective system developing near KS-96
and moving south-southeast with time, along with some activity
moving out of southeast CO. The primary hazard with these storms
will be damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, although some large
hail up to golf balls will be possible early in the convective
cycle. Thunderstorms will move into OK 08Z, and the rest of the
overnight period will be quiet as the cold front washes out
over our area.

Daytime Friday, short range ensembles agree a compact upper
level shortwave trough will move from the Desert Southwest
Friday morning to the central Rockies by Friday evening. 500-mb
height falls will support a slightly cooler afternoon, but
temperatures are still expected to peak in the 90s. As the
upper trough approaches, increasing forcing for ascent will
result in thunderstorms developing over the Rocky Mountains, and
move east into eastern CO. Eventually, these storms are progged
to move into western KS, but there is still considerable
uncertainty among HREF members regarding severity. Given
stronger winds aloft associated with the upper level impulse,
deep layer wind shear will be much more supportive of
organization, which would suggest storms will have no trouble
reaching western KS and posing a primarily severe wind gust
threat. This thinking is aligned with the latest Convective
Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center which places roughly
the northwestern half of our area in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of
5). Once again, thunderstorm activity will be clear of southwest
KS by sunrise Saturday morning.

Over the weekend and into next week, medium range ensembles
agree upper level longwave troughing will take shape over the
western CONUS. With slightly lower 500-mb heights and plenty of
southwesterly flow across the central Rockies, afternoon highs
will remain generally in the 90s along with multiple
opportunities for precipitation as both the ECMWF EPS and GEFS
show probability of QPF > 0.01" in the 30-60% range each day
through next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

At the onset of this TAF period overnight, winds will generally
be light with an easterly component. Later in the morning after
sunrise, winds will gradually increase in speed out of the
southeast as the pressure gradient tightens in response to an
approaching low pressure system. Thunderstorms are expected to
affect most, if not all terminals toward the end of this TAF
period, but for this synoptic TAF cycle, we will only introduce
thunderstorms (VCTS) at GCK and LBL terminals as the timing of
storms across southwest Kansas tomorrow evening looks to be
fairly late on the latest short-term, high-resolution models.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Umscheid