Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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259 FXUS63 KDDC 252234 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 534 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...Updated Aviation/Key Messages... .KEY MESSAGES... - A weak dry cold front will pass through southwest Kansas Tuesday night and early Wednesday, followed by a northeast to east wind Wednesday, and a slight reduction in the heat. - Scattered thunderstorms are expected Thursday night, and again through the upcoming weekend. - Another break in the hot afternoon temperatures is expected this weekend as well. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Temperature and dew points early this afternoon have combined for heat indices in the mid and upper 90s and 101 and 103F at LaCrosse and Medicine Lodge respectively, with still plenty of heating to go this afternoon, supporting the heat advisory that remains in effect everywhere east of a Wakeeney to Liberal Line. Of the various members of the HREF (short term ensemble) only a lone, typically over-convecting CAM is continuing to produce thunderstorms along the incoming surface boundary latest his afternoon and evening (the Hi-Res ARW). The marginal risk had been trimmed back to mainly the southeast counties. Therefore any severe risk is really minimal and very low confidence this afternoon but not zero. A progressive upper pattern will help drive high plains MCS activity over the next couple of nights, starting with Wednesday night and beyond. The dome of hot air is going nowhere, but the atmosphere across central and southwest Kansas will be regionally modified by a cold front late tonight (Tuesday), bringing a slight respite to the heat risk levels as well Wednesday and Thursday, with a return on Friday but with uncertainty. The latest NBM bumps precipitation probabilities to 50% and higher north of K-96 Wednesday night and Thursday. Wednesday will bring post frontal easterly surface winds while returning to a more breezy/marginally windy day Thursday with southerly gusty winds returning ahead of the redeveloping lee troughing. Friday may bring heat risk back, mainly to the southeast counties. The Probability of apparent temperatures exceeding 104 degrees (105 is the threshold for heat advisories) in only around 20-40% based on the grand ensembles - and focused from around Clark State Lake to Pratt and areas south of there. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 534 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Excellent flying weather will continue through 12z Wed with VFR/SKC and light winds, less than 10 kts, variable in direction. A dry cold front will pass through the airports 09-12z Wed, with an increase in northeast winds and modest NEly gusts to near 20 kts. After 15z Wed, NE winds will increase further, with gusts of 25-30 kts for a few hours through peak mixing midday Wednesday. After 21z Wed, winds will diminish and trend easterly at all airports. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ030-031-045- 046-064>066-077>081-086>090. && $$ DISCUSSION...Russell AVIATION...Turner