787
FXUS63 KDDC 251946
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
246 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory remains in effect for this afternoon for
  forecast heat index values of 103 to 107 degrees. An isolated
  location or two, particularly across Red Hills region, may
  approach 110F heat index for a brief time.

- Another round of scattered thunderstorms tonight, but the main
  activity will likely be southeast of much of our forecast
  area.

- A cold front late tonight will mark the beginning of an active
  stretch of nightly thunderstorms rolling east across western
  Kansas, mainly at night. Signals continue to be quite strong
  for widespread 1 to 2 inches of total rainfall between
  Wednesday Night and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Temperature and dew points early this afternoon have combined
for heat indices in the mid and upper 90s and 101 and 103F at
LaCrosse and Medicine Lodge respectively, with still plenty of
heating to go this afternoon, supporting the heat advisory that
remains in effect everywhere east of a Wakeeney to Liberal Line.
Of the various members of the HREF (short term ensemble) only a
lone, typically over-convecting CAM is continuing to produce
thunderstorms along the incoming surface boundary latest his
afternoon and evening (the Hi-Res ARW). The marginal risk had
been trimmed back to mainly the southeast counties. Therefore
any severe risk is really minimal and very low confidence this
afternoon  but not zero.

A progressive upper pattern will help drive high plains MCS
activity over the next couple of nights, starting with Wednesday
night and beyond. The dome of hot air is going nowhere, but the
atmosphere across central and southwest Kansas will be
regionally modified by a cold front late tonight (Tuesday),
bringing a slight respite to the heat risk levels as well
Wednesday and Thursday, with a return on Friday but with
uncertainty. The latest NBM bumps precipitation probabilities to
50% and higher north of K-96 Wednesday night and Thursday.
Wednesday will bring post frontal easterly surface winds while
returning to a more breezy/marginally windy day Thursday with
southerly gusty winds returning ahead of the redeveloping lee
troughing.

Friday may bring heat risk back, mainly to the southeast
counties. The Probability of apparent temperatures exceeding 104
degrees (105 is the threshold for heat advisories) in only
around 20-40% based on the grand ensembles - and focused from
around Clark State Lake to Pratt and areas south of there.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Decaying thunderstorms over the south central Kansas counties
late this morning will not impact any local terminals. Through
mid afternoon expect clear conditions and VFR at all sites. By
about 23z the potential increases significantly for isolated
thunderstorms development (under 10% areal coverage) associated
with a surface cold front that should be near GCK oriented north
east to southwest. Models have favored northern areas of the
forecast area along this boundary for isolated convection,
(between 23z and 3z), meaning very low confidence exists in even
having a storm in the vicinity of any given terminal. Any storm
that does develop will be in a deeply mixed layer with good
potential for locally severe thunderstorm wind downbursts. The
front pushing though later in the evening will turn surface
winds out of the north.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ030-031-045-
046-064>066-077>081-086>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Russell