Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
894 FXXX12 KWNP 260031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 26 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... NOTE: GOES X-Ray Flux, Electron Flux, and Proton Flux data went offline at 24/2125 UTC due to a network outage. Data began to come in around 25/1200 UTC but has had a few intermittent gaps. Work is in progress to restore services. Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an isolated M1.0 flare at 254/1245 UTC from Region 3723 (S19E44, Fai/beta-gamma-delta). The Region remained the most magnetically complex spot group, however the region changed little over the last 24 hours. Region 3720 (S06E04, Dai/beta-gamma) showed some decay in its leader spots during the previous 12 hours. New Region 3728 (S25E55, Bxo/beta) was numbered. Initial modeling of the CME associated with the 35 degree filament eruption centered near S19W58 that was observed lifting off at 24/2310 UTC returned with flanking influences at Earth by late on 28 Jun. Additional analysis and modeling of this event is ongoing. A second filament erupted near S30W12 with an associated CME visible off of the southeast limb. A model run for that event is also in progress. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely on 26-28 Jun due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 3723 and 3720. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was near background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 26-28 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at or near background levels on 26-28 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected possible weak transient activity. The geomagnetic field increased from 6 to near 9 nT at the end of the period. A prolonged period of southward Bz reaching -7 nT was observed between 25/0035-0930 UTC. Solar wind speed ranged from 268-357 km/s. Phi angle was mostly negative. .Forecast... Mostly ambient-like solar wind conditions are expected to prevail through 27 Jun. An enhancement from the large filament eruption from late on 24 Jun is likely by late 28 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail over 26-27 Jun and through most of 28 Jun. Active conditions are expected, with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming, by late 28 Jun with the arrival of flanking effects from the 24 Jun filament eruption.