475
FXUS63 KDLH 220529
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1229 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible this
afternoon into the evening, with an isolated severe storm possible
over portions of NW WI.

- Cooler and quieter weather Sunday and into next week.

- Chance of patchy frost Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Areas of showers and thunderstorms have been continuously developing
today across the tongue of a warm sector reaching into the Northland
along a gradient of marginal MUCAPE up to 1000 J/kg. However, there
is a lot of stable air sticking around north of the current
activity, and we saw more precipitation than was expected this
morning, especially across Pine County and NW WI. Initially, it was
thought that we might see a line of discrete storms initiate along a
cold front in NE MN as it made it`s way southeast. Several areas of
cumulus have developed but not been able to develop past a
stratocumulus mediocris stage. A line of thunderstorms has developed
from St. Cloud nearly into Pine County, which may be the best chance
for a strong to severe storm across portions of Pine, Burnett,
Washburn, Sawyer, and Price Counties late this afternoon into the
evening. Some showers could develop across NE MN under CAA and
northwest flow, but not expecting much thunderstorm activity.

Much cooler temperatures filter into the Northland behind today`s
cold front. We`ll see almost normal high temperatures in the mid to
high 60s Sunday with lows in the 40s tonight. An even chillier night
is likely into Monday morning. With clear skies, temperatures are
currently forecast to fall into the mid to high 30s and areas of
frost are possible. A Frost Advisory may be needed. Into next week,
temperatures in the 60s and 70s are expected, with a gentle warm up
hedging towards mid to upper 70s mid to late week. Despite being
cooler than some our recent hot temperatures, this is still 10 to 20
degrees above normal. A lack of precipitation, a dry airmass, and
clear skies should lead to good cool downs overnight. Global models
are in fairly decent agreement for a very low chance of
precipitation until next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VFR conditions persist throughout the this TAF period. Some VFR
stratus around 5000 ft in northwest Wisconsin behind a departing
cold front will exit east through around 08-10Z. After that,
there will be a few high clouds streaming over HYR today, and
FEW/SCT diurnal cumulus affecting INL and other areas near the
International Border during the daytime hours today. Winds will
remain northwest to north-northwesterly through much of the TAF
period at around 5-10 knots overnight, then at 8-12 kt with
gusts to 15-20kt from mid morning through late afternoon before
turning light and variable this evening into tonight.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

There is a low chance for some thunderstorms this evening. Winds
become northwesterly behind the cold front, with gusts of 20 to 30
knots possible overnight into Sunday morning. A Small Craft Advisory
is in effect for all of Western Lake Superior. Through the day
Sunday, winds remain northwesterly but calm to 5 to 15 knots. No
significant weather or winds expected early to mid week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121-
     140>142-147-148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     LSZ143>146.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Levens