906
AXPZ20 KNHC 282104
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jun 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Heavy rainfall for Central America and eastern Mexico: Broad
circulation across Central America will deliver heavy rainfall
across Mexico southward to Costa Rica and Panama through the
weekend. Currently, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
occurring across all of the Central American countries - from
Guatemala southward to Panama. For the forecast, heavy rainfall
is expected to impact Costa Rica and Panama through today,
spreading northward to Nicaragua, Guatemala, and El Salvador
through the weekend. As the circulation continues moving north,
these storms will impact southern Mexico later in the weekend
into Mon. Please refer to local weather advisories for more
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Mexico near 15N93W
to 10N109W to 08N127W. The ITCZ extends from 08N127W to 10N134W
to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 07N to 154 between 83W and 106W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between
135W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
heavy rainfall potential this weekend over southern Mexico.

Weak surface ridging continues to extend across the Baja
California waters. This is leading to light to gentle winds over
most of the Mexico offshore waters. Moderate winds are likely
occurring in the Baja California Norte waters N of 28N.
Scatterometer also depicts moderate southerly winds in the Gulf
of California. Seas range 4 to 6 ft within N to NW swell across
the Baja California offshore waters. Seas are 4 to 5 ft in the S
and SW Mexico offshore waters in mixed swell. In the Gulf of
California, seas are 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, broad low pressure over northern Central
America is forecast to move NW into southern Mexico this
weekend, enhancing heavy showers and thunderstorms offshore the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the
area will generally maintain mostly gentle breezes and moderate
combined seas across the Mexican offshore waters through Mon. By
Mon night through Tue, moderate to fresh winds and rough seas
could filter into the Baja California Norte waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
heavy rainfall potential this weekend over Central America.

The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate southerly winds
across the Costa Rica offshore waters. Moderate to locally fresh
winds likely extend into the Nicaragua offshore waters. Light to
gentle winds are noted farther north in the Guatemala and El
Salvador offshore waters. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in these waters
within S to SW swell. Across the Colombia, Ecuador and Galapagos
Islands offshore waters, gentle to moderate southerly winds
prevail. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in this area within S to SW swell.

For the forecast, broad low pressure over northern Central
America will support moderate to fresh SW winds across the
offshore waters of Costa Rica into Guatemala through Sat. This
system will also bring showers and thunderstorms across these
areas through the weekend. Afterward, gentle to moderate S to SW
winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast across all of the
offshore waters Sun through Tue.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends SE from a 1024 mb high pressure center
near 37N137W. The ridge covers the subtropical waters W of 123W.
North of the ITCZ to 31N and W of 120W, winds are mostly gentle
to moderate. Locally fresh winds are noted N of of the ITCZ to
18N and W of 130W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in this area. E of 120W, a
1011 mb low pressure is noted near 17N119W. Scatterometer data
showed moderate winds are occurring around the low. Otherwise,
gentle winds prevail with seas to 5 ft. South of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough, moderate to fresh winds prevail with seas 4 to 7
ft. Seas are to 8 ft with some of the fresh winds near 06N94W.

For the forecast, expect periods of fresh winds and 5 to 8 ft
seas E of 110W south of the monsoon trough through the weekend.
Little change is expected elsewhere.

$$
AReinhart