Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
126 AXPZ20 KNHC 251922 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jun 25 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 96W reaching southward from the Oaxaca, Mexico, to near 05N. It is moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 06N to 14N between 92W and 99W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N107W to 08N139W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 05N to 12N E of 92W, from 10N to 12N between 106W and 117W, and from 06N to 12N between 123W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a trough W of Baja California and higher pressure in the subtropics is leading to fresh NW winds offshore Cabo San Lucas. This weak trough, which extends from 30N123W to 22N132W, breaks up the standard ridging pattern over parts of the tropics, leading mainly light winds across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. A tropical wave extending south from Oaxaca is leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms in an south of the Gulf of Tehunatepec. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft over open waters with components of NW and SW swell. Seas are 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds may pulse just offshore Cabo San Lucas tonight and Wed night. Elsewhere a weak gradient over the area will generally maintain mostly gentle breezes and moderate combined seas across the Mexican offshore waters through Sat. Broad low pressure may form over northern Central America and southern Mexico late this week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Showers and thunderstorms are increasing offshore Panama in associated with an approaching western Caribbean tropical wave. Light to gentle winds persist across waters N of the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate SW winds to the S. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, the weak pressure pattern over the region will continue to support generally gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate wave heights. Broad low pressure is likely to form over northern Central America late this week, drawing in increasing SW winds offshore Panama and Costa Rica. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge centered on 1022 mb high pressure at 39N134W dominates the basin west of 120W. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell. Light to gentle winds prevail, except moderate SW winds S of the monsoon trough and E of 100W. Expect fresh winds near the monsoon trough between 130W and 140W by Wed associated with a weak trough, otherwise little change is expected into late week. $$ Konarik