Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
734 FNUS74 KEPZ 040049 FWSEPZ Spot Forecast for Cameron Creek RX...GILA NATIONAL FOREST National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 649 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on June 04. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Elevated fire danger on Tuesday with west winds 10 to 15 mph and midday RH as low as 10%. Smoke ventilation becoming Very Good by noon with transport to the ESE. The latter half of the week will be quite hot with high pressure aloft. Wind direction becomes less reliable Wednesday/Thursday, with north flow in the morning swinging to the southwest by the late afternoon, however wind speeds are expected to remain below 10 mph. Expect to see afternoon cumulus clouds returning by Thursday afternoon, with the best thunderstorm chances Friday-Sunday. Storm coverage will be quite isolated and spotty (20-30% coverage). Storms will be high based, low precipitation, and capable of producing erratic outflow winds well away from the storm core. Surface moisture will remain quite low, with min RH 15-20%. .TUESDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 88. Min humidity........13 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 8 mph shifting to the west 9 to 11 mph in the afternoon. Mixing height.......12600 ft AGL. Transport winds.....North 12 to 17 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (46100 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to very good (109400 knot-ft) in the afternoon increasing to excellent (164700 knot-ft) late in the afternoon. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........48 18 43 43 52 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 Temp............69 77 83 87 88 RH..............21 16 15 13 13 20 ft wind......N 8 NW 8 W 9 W 9 W 11 20 ft wind gust.14 15 16 16 18 Mix hgt (ft)....2900 11300 11300 12600 12600 Transport wind..N 17 N 12 N 12 NW 14 NW 14 Haines index....2 2 2 2 2 Vrate kt-ft/1K..46 109 109 165 165 Ventrate Cat....FAIR VYGD VYGD EXNT EXNT .TUESDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 63. Max humidity........32 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 8 to 10 mph shifting to the north around 8 mph after 3 am. Mixing height.......700 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 17 mph shifting to the north around 16 mph overnight. Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (157100 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (8900 knot-ft) in the late evening and overnight. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........57 57 47 22 22 14 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............85 77 72 69 66 64 RH..............14 17 21 25 28 30 20 ft wind......W 10 W 10 NW 8 NW 8 NW 8 N 8 20 ft wind gust.18 18 15 16 16 16 Mix hgt (ft)....10500 10500 700 700 700 700 Transport wind..W 17 W 17 NW 15 NW 15 N 16 N 16 Haines index....2 2 2 2 2 2 Vrate kt-ft/1K..157 157 9 9 9 9 Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT POOR POOR POOR POOR .WEDNESDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of pcpn......10 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 91. Min humidity........14 percent. Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 8 mph shifting to the east around 5 mph late in the morning, then shifting to the southwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Mixing height.......14300 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northeast around 15 mph shifting to the southeast around 9 mph in the late morning and early afternoon, then shifting to the southwest late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (51600 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to very good (107800 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky (%).........13 10 28 54 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 10 10 LAL.............1 1 1 1 Temp............63 76 86 91 RH..............32 22 16 14 20 FT wind......N 8G16 E 5G14 S 5G15 SW 7G16 Mix hgt (ft)....5200 5200 14300 14200 Transport wind..NE 15 NE 15 SE 9 SW 9 Haines index....2 2 2 2 Vrate kt-ft/1K..52 52 103 108 Ventrate Cat....FAIR FAIR VYGD VYGD .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .THURSDAY... Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the lower 90s. Northwest winds around 6 mph. .FRIDAY... Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the lower 90s. Northeast winds around 6 mph. .SATURDAY... Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the upper 80s. North winds around 7 mph. .SUNDAY... Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the mid 80s. .MONDAY... Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 60. Highs in the mid 80s. $$ Forecaster...DENNHARDT Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch Center Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2415232.6/EPZ .DELDT 06/03/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov