077
FXUS62 KFFC 081847
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
247 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

The influence of surface high pressure over the Southeast will
promote dry conditions across north and central Georgia through the
remainder of the day. Dewpoints are expected to be in the low to mid
50s across the forecast area this afternoon and into tonight.
Northwesterly upper level flow will persist over the region ahead of
a broad ridge moving towards the central CONUS. A series of
shortwaves traversing the upper level flow pattern will characterize
the sensible weather through the remainder of the short term period.
The first of these disturbances is moving through the Tennessee
Valley region. A decaying and moisture-starved MCS associated with
this shortwave is bringing increased mid and upper level clouds into
portions of the forecast area, but no precipitation is expected this
afternoon and evening. With no precipitation and plenty of sunshine
today, temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80s in north
Georgia (with lower temperatures in the northeast mountains) and low
90s in central Georgia. Relative humidity values this afternoon will
range from 25-30 percent in central Georgia and 30-35 percent in
north Georgia.

By Sunday morning, a weak frontal boundary will begin to push
southward towards north Georgia. At this time, atmospheric moisture
will begin to steadily increase from north to south. Meanwhile,
another shortwave will move from northwest to southeast through the
Tennessee Valley region. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across portions of north Georgia
early Sunday morning with increasing dewpoints and an additional
focus along the frontal boundary. Will need to monitor where a
remnant outflow boundary from these storms could potentially set up
on Sunday morning into the afternoon. With a third disturbance
potentially traversing the region in the afternoon and plenty of
diurnal instability, a redevelopment of thunderstorms near the front
and remnant outflow will be possible in the afternoon. At this time
PoPs are mostly confined to along and north of I-20. Thunderstorms
that occur with this round will generally move east-southeast ahead
of the shortwave, and will have the potential to become strong to
severe, capable of producing strong winds and hail. As a result, the
SPC has upgraded much of north Georgia to a Marginal Risk (level 1
out of 5) for severe weather. High temperatures in central Georgia
will increase into the upper 90s on Sunday afternoon. Atmospheric
moisture will also be the slowest to increase in this area, with
dewpoints remaining in the upper 50s to low 60s. These dewpoints
will keep heat indices from reaching Heat Advisory criteria.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

By Monday morning, the slow moving frontal boundary will likely have
cleared the forecast area as surface high pressure builds in over
the Midwest and the broad troughing progresses eastward. The trough
is expected to become more amplified over the east coast as a high
amplitude ridge over the central Plains builds in ahead of another
shortwave digging in over the PNW on Monday. This will ultimately
slow down the progression of the frontal boundary leaving it to
meander over the Florida Panhandle. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Tuesday as a
result. A few storms could become strong to severe on Monday and
Tuesday but no widespread severe weather is anticipated at this time.

By midweek, a northward surge of tropical moisture will advect
northward and produce showers and thunderstorms each day through the
remainder of the long term forecast period as another shortwave
interacts with this system. The primary concern will be heavy
rainfall as PWATs are trending between 2.0-2.5" across central
Georgia. The sandier soils in this region are capable of holding
more water than their northern counterparts, but they may be at risk
of instances of flash flooding given the repeated nature of
precipitation as models indicate the low may slow to a crawl over
the northern Gulf through the end of the period. The current
forecast trends keep the heaviest precipitation just to the south of
the CWA, but will need to monitor the evolution as the model
guidance diverges in solutions towards the end of the period.

KAL

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. Mid to
upper level clouds will increase in coverage this evening and into
the overnight hours. Scattered SHRA/TSRA is anticipated during the
daytime on Sunday, but should stay north of the TAF sites. A
scattered cu field around 050-060 is expected in the late morning
and afternoon hours. Winds directions will be tricky to start the
period given wind speeds of 5 kts or less. Winds are currently
mainly on the E side, but forecast to shift to W in the mid-
afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on wind direction and timing of wind shift.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  93  68  84 /   0  20  20  20
Atlanta         68  93  68  84 /   0  20  20  20
Blairsville     61  83  60  77 /  20  50  40  20
Cartersville    64  90  65  84 /  10  30  20  20
Columbus        66  96  73  90 /   0  10  10  30
Gainesville     66  88  68  83 /  10  30  20  20
Macon           66  96  72  89 /   0  10  10  30
Rome            64  91  66  85 /  10  40  30  20
Peachtree City  64  93  68  86 /   0  20  20  20
Vidalia         68  98  75  92 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....KAL
AVIATION...King