Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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157 FXUS62 KFFC 241833 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 233 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The rainfall has finally moves south of our area into southern GA and northern Florida. With this the drier air has begun to filter into N GA only slightly behind schedule. The high pressure will again dominate the forecast over the next two days and with the large amount of dry air seen through the upper levels being the main driving factor. Forecast PWATs are currently between 0.5 and 0.8" for much of north and central Georgia which when compared to the sounding climatology is at the 10th percentile or lower for this time of year. We will definitely be encroaching on record low PWATs. Temps will also of course continue to be unseasonable warm at ~8-10 degrees above normal for this time of year as highs reach into the 95-98 degree range today and tomorrow. With the dry air in place though, dewpoints look to get as low as the mid 50s to low 60s which is actually a positive when it comes to how hot it feels outside. With those lower dewpoints our humidity will be lower and in turn our heat indices will be closer to the actual temperatures with tomorrow maxing out at 100 for portions of eastern central GA. Winds may be gusty to 20 mph today but should be less tomorrow as winds switch the NE overnight. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday morning through next Sunday) Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 A Mid to upper level ridge combined with a weak surface high centered to the north of Georgia will keep conditions dry to begin the extended periods Wednesday morning. a longwave trough is expected to extend into the Mississippi River Valley and move eastward towards Georgia Wednesday Afternoon just as low level flow gains a southerly component ahead of the trough. We should see some moisture return across western GA wed Evening, spreading eastward Wed night. Will still see high temperatures mainly in the upper 90s to around 100 but some locations may just see some welcomed showers and isolated thunderstorms late Wed into Thu. Precip chances will be strongest (30% to 50% chance) Thu as the weakening frontal boundary sweeps SE through the area. The front is anticipated to clear the forecast area to the southeast by late Thursday night. Southerly low- level flow will likely return to the area Friday into Saturday, which will promote increasing dewpoints, hot temperatures, and isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms through the weekend. It will be important to keep an eye on temperatures through the later parts of the week into the weekend. Even with trending high temperatures down slightly to account for convective development, highs are still forecast to range from between 4-8 degrees above average for late June. Highs are mainly forecast to be in the 95 to 100 deg range Thursday through Sunday, and heat indices are forecast to creep up into the 100 to 105 deg range in many locations, particularly across Central GA. 01 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 123 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 FEW/SCT deck at 5000 ft of cumulus continues to sag southward behind the rain over central and southern GA. Expecting skies to become SKC by 22-23z today and continue through tomorrow. Gusts up to 20 kts are possible this afternoon through about 22-23z before calming overnight. Winds will also make the switch from NW to NE (010) ~04-05z overnight. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High on all elements. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 70 97 71 99 / 0 0 0 20 Atlanta 72 97 74 99 / 0 0 0 20 Blairsville 60 90 66 91 / 0 10 0 30 Cartersville 64 96 70 99 / 0 0 0 30 Columbus 72 100 73 101 / 0 0 0 30 Gainesville 69 94 72 96 / 0 0 0 20 Macon 70 100 71 101 / 0 10 0 30 Rome 65 97 70 99 / 0 0 0 30 Peachtree City 68 98 71 99 / 0 0 0 20 Vidalia 74 101 74 101 / 20 30 10 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...Hernandez