327
FXUS65 KFGZ 262319
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
419 PM MST Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will continue through Thursday. Activity decreases
for Friday and Saturday, and then slowly ramps up again from
Sunday into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A much less active day is underway across northern
Arizona in the wake of this morning`s MCV passage. Ample cloud
cover this morning has delayed daytime heating with convective
initiation just beginning. Less available instability today will
limit the coverage of showers and storms, with the best chances
being west of Flagstaff and along the New Mexico border. That
being said, plenty of moisture remains in place with PWATs
(preciptable water) ranging from around 1.00 - 1.50". Any storms
that do develop will have the potential of producing 1-2" rainfall
amounts. Localized flash flooding will be the greatest concern
today. Low wind shear should limit any severe potential, but some
hail and gusty winds are possible.

The moisture stays around for one more day on Thursday before a
couple of drier days arrive. On Thursday, a trough of low pressure
moving through the northwestern U.S. will nudge the subtropical
high pressure southward while a drier southwesterly flow begins to
develop. Expect the focus for showers and storms to shift to areas
along and north of the Mogollon Rim, with drier conditions south
and west of Flagstaff. The enhanced southwest flow will increase
wind shear, especially across northeastern Arizona, leading to the
potential for some longer lived and stronger/severe storms there.

Much drier air sweeps over the area Thursday night through Friday.
A dry day area-wide can expected Friday with the only chances for
rain Saturday confined to the White Mountains. The dry days will
be short-lived as subtropical high pressure building north and
west again beginning Sunday will again usher in additional
moisture from the south. Expect precipitation chances to increase
and spread north through early next week.

With more sunshine over the weekend, and high pressure building
back into the state next week, temperatures will be on an
increasing trend reaching a few degrees above normal.

The monsoonal pattern looks to continue through much of next week,
though confidence decreases in the moisture by the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 27/00Z through Friday 28/00Z...Isolated
showers and thunderstorms will persist until 04Z before ending.
Expect another round of scattered thunderstorms along and north
of a KIGM-KPRC-KSOW line Thursday afternoon. Light winds overnight
will become southwest at 10-20 kts on Thursday, but could gust up
to 40 kts in the vicinity of thunderstorms.


OUTLOOK...Friday 28/00Z through Sunday 30/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions are forecast except for isolated thunderstorms over
far eastern Arizona early Thursday evening. A near shutdown of
storm activity is forecast for Friday and Saturday. Look for
Gusty/erratic winds near any thunderstorms. Otherwise, expect
afternoon southwest winds at 10-20 kts each day.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms continue through Thursday. Stronger storms will
bring heavy rainfall, hail, lightning, and gusty, erratic winds.
On Thursday, the emphasis shifts primarily to the Mogollon Rim
north and east. Southwest winds increase Thursday and Friday to
10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

Saturday through Monday...Mostly dry weather on Saturday with the
only storm chances confined to the White Mountains. Expect
moisture and storm chances to gradually increase from Sunday
onward. Temperatures will warm above average with daytime
southwest winds of 10-20 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff