Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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790 FXUS65 KFGZ 212013 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 113 PM MST Fri Jun 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Look for daily chances for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend and into the middle of next week. Otherwise, muggy and hot conditions will continue. && .DISCUSSION...Model soundings are indicating and mesoscale forecast models are showing a downturn in the coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity today compared to Thursday. The main change to the forecast for today was to lower the chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area near the Arizona/Utah border and Four Corners. The net result will be about 30-40% coverage of showers and storms toward the Arizona/Utah border and Four Corners with lesser coverage further south. We continue to see a decent amount of vertical shear in the environment and there will remain a threat of an isolated severe thunderstorm or two across northern Arizona into the evening hours. The main threat for severe storms will be along the Arizona/Utah border and Four Corners. We have already seen on isolated severe storm west of Page producing radar indicated 2.00 inch diamter hail. Wind gusts in excess of 60 mph will also be possbile should a severe storm develop. Otherwise, look for hot and somewhat muggy weather to continue as we make our first foray into a true monsoon pattern. For Saturday through Wednesday...High pressure will build over Arizona as the remnants of Alberto move across the southern portion of the Gulf of California. In addition, thunderstorm activity over the Sierra Occidental of northwest Mexico is expected to ramp-up. The result will be a surge of additional moisture from over the Gulf of California into Arizona. The input of deep monsoon moisture with the combination of high pressure setting up over Arizona will introduce the threat of daily showers and thunderstorms through the period. Winds will be much lighter with a less vertically sheared environment so storms will be more of the up/down pulse variety. You can expect that hot and muggy monsoon feeling each day with a chance of afternoon relief should you be lucky enough to get a shower or storm overhead. From Thursday onward...Models are indicating a downturn in shower and thunderstorm activity with the passing of a drying and stabilizing trough from the west. In reality, for monsoon forecasting, that`s a bit far off to have much condfidence. && .AVIATION...Friday 21/18Z through Saturday 22/18Z...Mainly VFR expected. MVFR in SHRA/TSRA between 18Z-03Z, mainly along and east of KGCN-KPAN line with ISO SHRA through 12Z/Sat. S-SW winds 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts. Erratic and gusty winds in the vicinity of storms. OUTLOOK...Saturday 22/18Z through Monday 24/18Z...Mainly VFR expected. Expect SHRA/TSRA between 18Z-03Z each day. S-SW winds 5-15 kts each afternoon. Erratic and gusty winds in the vicinity of storms. && .FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Expect scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Wetting rains are likely with any storms, as well as gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 45 mph. Outside of outflow winds, expect south to southwest winds at 10- 15 mph both days. Monday through Wednesday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue Monday, mainly along and south of the Mogollon Rim and the White Mountains. Storm activity may decrease on Tuesday and Wednesday. A gradual warming trend leads to above normal temperatures by Tuesday. Otherwise, light southwesterly winds around 10-15 mph each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...RR FIRE WEATHER...RR For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff