279
FXUS64 KFWD 260617
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
117 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday/

A cluster of storms in southern Oklahoma has exhibited a
weakening trend as it continues moving south late this evening.
Most (if not all) of this activity is expected to dissipate prior
to reaching the Red River, but low (20%) PoPs have been
introduced through the morning hours in the event a few showers or
storms are able to survive the journey into North Texas. We`ll
have additional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms
throughout the day. The first will be associated with a complex of
thunderstorms that has developed from Nebraska into Iowa and
Missouri. This system will continue moving south and may skirt
portions of eastern North and Central Texas later today.
Additional thunderstorm development may occur with any outflow
boundary from the dissipating cluster of storms in Oklahoma,
mainly during peak heating this afternoon. A few strong to
marginally severe storms with hail and gusty winds will be
possible, especially during the afternoon hours, but marginal deep
layer shear will preclude a greater severe weather threat from
materializing. Low storm chances will linger into Wednesday night
across our eastern zones with the passage of another weak
shortwave, but rain chances should shut off as mid-level ridging
builds in again on Thursday.

Aside from the rain chances, summer heat will continue to plague
the region. High temperatures will range from the mid 90s to
around 103 degrees with heat index values between 105-110 for most
locations. While there is some bust potential with the current
Heat Advisory today given the potential for rain, no adjustments
will be made due to the uncertainty in location and coverage of
storms through the afternoon. Heat Advisory criteria will be met
for most locations again on Thursday, so expect an extension
through Thursday at some point tonight or later today.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 235 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024/
/Thursday Onward/

A weak surface boundary will be draped somewhere across the
northeast third of the region at the start of the forecast period,
which may warrant 10-20 POPs on Thursday where an isolated storm
or two may occur. Subsidence associated with a strengthening ridge
aloft will shut down most convective attempts, however, keeping
the vast majority of the region hot, humid and rain-free. The
ridge will remain overhead through the weekend and actually
strengthen during the early part of next week. Triple digit high
temperatures will be the result just about every afternoon with
heat index values regularly in the 105 to 110 degree range. Sunday
will be another day where a few storms may occur across the
northeast associated with another weak front, but POPs will again
remain 10 to 20 percent. Strong ridging and oppressive heat will
otherwise likely continue through the July 4th holiday.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

A cluster of storms in southern Oklahoma has recently exhibited a
weakening trend as it moves south. Most (if not all) of this
activity should dissipate before crossing the Red River later this
morning, but a stray shower or storm can`t be ruled out in North
Texas through the morning hours. Additional storms will be
possible throughout the day, mainly across eastern North and
Central Texas, but this activity is expected to remain east of
the terminals.

MVFR stratus is expected later this morning, but will likely
remain patchy across D10. Otherwise, VFR will continue through the
period with southerly winds near 8 to 12 knots.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81 101  81 100  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
Waco                78  99  78  97  78 /   5   0   0   0   0
Paris               75  94  77  97  78 /  20   5   0   0   0
Denton              77 100  78 101  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
McKinney            78  98  79  99  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dallas              80 101  81 100  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
Terrell             77  97  78  97  77 /  20   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           78  98  79  97  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
Temple              77  99  76  97  77 /   5   0   0   5   0
Mineral Wells       78 102  78 100  78 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$