Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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548 FXUS63 KGLD 232017 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 217 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight chance of sprinkles and light showers tonight into Tuesday morning. - Near average temperatures and dry conditions forecast for the upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 405 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Through the day today, a 500mb ridge from the southwest will be keeping the sky clear today as temperatures warm into the mid to upper 70s. Winds will be light and southerly for most of the day, until the afternoon when a very weak surface low will cause winds in the eastern CWA to become northerly. By 0Z, the low will have dissipated and southerly winds will be returning. Around 3Z Tuesday a trough, with an associated surface cold front, starts moving into the northern parts of the area that could bring in some sprinkles or light showers. This trough is extending from a low pressure system moving southeast across the Northern Plains into Missouri. The additional cloud cover will keep overnight temperatures near 50. The sprinkles are most likely to occur near a line from Hill City, KS to Trenton, NE between 6Z and 18Z. These sprinkles are not expected to amount to measurable precipitation. By Wednesday 0Z, we will be seeing northerly flow throughout the column with the low to our east and a developing high to the west. This pattern will continue through Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will clear out the sky again, allowing temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday night to cool into the lower to mid 40s. Day time heating will capitalize on the clear skies, with Tuesday warming into the mid to upper 70s with Wednesday warming to near 80. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 217 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF show much of the extended period having amplified upper level ridging over the central Plains. This is going to provide dry conditions to the area with near/above normal temperatures. Guidance does bring a meandering, retrograding upper low from the lower Mississippi Valley towards eastern KS before lifting east. At most some increased clouds expected in the eastern zones early Saturday morning, otherwise sunny skies will prevail. For the late in the weekend period into next Monday, a closed upper low works across the north central Plains w/ a trailing cold front through the CWA in the Mon-Mon night timeframe. The passage will bring some decent CAAa into the area for round of below normal temps. 850mb temps for this time range +4c to +8c. The two models do differ on the surge of a strong surface ridge into the area behind the front, which could delay/increase the CAA into the area by Monday night. Some gusts ahead of the ridge initially could approach the 30-35 mph range. For temps, looking for highs on Friday through the upcoming weekend to range in the upper 70s into the lower 80s. Warmest areas each day will be mainly west of Highway 25. Going into next Monday, 70s return area-wide. Lows Thursday night will range in the 40s. For Fri- Sun nights, 40s west into the lower 50s east, followed by slightly colder air Monday night with a range from the upper 30s to lower 40s in Colorado to the lower and mid 40s east of there. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1019 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Both terminals expected to see VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds for KGLD, southwest around 10kts through 09z Tuesday. There could be a period of light/variable from 22z Mon-03z Tue. From 09z onward, north-northwest around 10kts. Winds for KMCK, south 5-10kts through 00z Tuesday, then light/variable. By 12z, becoming northwest around 10kts. There is a low(15%) chances for showers/sprinkles to fall over the terminals, especially KMCK. Do not expect impacts from these at this time. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...JN