Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 211131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
531 AM MDT Wed Mar 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 302 AM MDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Latest upper air and satellite analysis show an area of cloud cover
rounding the ridge over the Rockies.  Otherwise dry northwest flow
was over the forecast area.

Today warmer air will continue to advect into the forecast area as
the upper level ridge continues to approach from the west.  This
afternoon southwest winds will increase and become breezy.  The
breezy winds will spread east through the afternoon, then lighten
from the west in the afternoon.  These winds may lead to hazardous
fire weather conditions in the afternoon.  See fire weather section
for more information.

Tonight lows will be warmer than last night as warm air advection

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 AM MDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Thursday winds will be light and temperatures will be even warmer
than today as the upper level ridge builds over the forecast area.

Thursday night the lows will be warmer than Monday`s highs.

Friday the upper level ridge will shift east of the forecast area.
Behind the ridge a short wave trough will develop overhead/deepen in
the afternoon.  At the surface a dry line will develop just east of
the forecast area.  During the latter half of the afternoon a cold
front will begin moving in from the north.

Higher dew points will be circulated around the surface low ahead of
the cold front.  This will allow CAPE to increase along and ahead of
the cold front which will allow for storm development as the front
moves south into the forecast area.  Storm coverage will peak by
early evening then move out of the forecast area by mid to late

There are a couple unknowns including the placement of the surface
low and the speed of the upper level short wave trough.  If the
trough moves too quickly over the forecast area in the afternoon,
the lift along the cold front will be behind the short wave trough
where subsidence will be.  If this occurs the storm coverage will be
more limited than if the lift with the cold front is ahead of the
short wave trough where the upper level lift will be.  Most model
data supports a slower short wave trough progression which would put
lift from the front ahead of the short wave trough.  Regarding the
front, model consensus has it through the middle of the forecast
area by early evening.  With the surface low south of the front,
would not be surprised if the front moved in earlier in the
afternoon.  If the front does move in earlier the timing of the
storm formation will also be earlier in the afternoon.

Am not expecting any severe storms to develop at this time due to
CAPE under 1000 j/kg, although a brief surge in intensity to severe
criteria along the front can`t be ruled out.  Deep layer shear is
quite strong, which may cause the storm updrafts to be ripped apart
considering the low amount of CAPE available.  DCAPE values do not
support severe wind production.

Friday night the cold front will have moved east of the forecast
area by mid evening if not earlier than that.  Behind the front
storm activity will end from north to south.

Saturday through Wednesday...

The main upper ridge moves east of the region on Saturday with
persistent southwest flow aloft bringing a series of disturbances
across the forecast area through Tuesday ahead of the trough that
deepens over the western U.S. and forms a cutoff low over the
extreme southwest U.S. That cutoff low remains near the U.S./Mexico
border trough Wednesday as the northern branch of the upper flow
moves a trough into the northern plains.

Temperatures remain above average but cool gradually through
Saturday and Sunday as surface high pressure remains over the plains
states and a weak lee side inverted trough deepens along the front
range. The surface trough develops into a closed low that
transitions further south over the panhandle region as a cold front
eases southward into the forecast area on Monday.  Cooler surface
high pressure moves south into the area on Tuesday and Wednesday,
which will keep temperatures close to average for this time of year
with highs in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the 30s.

Dry conditions are expected on Saturday and Sunday. There is a
chance of a mix of rain and snow early Monday through Monday night
and Tuesday morning as the front pushes into the region along with
the series of weak disturbances lifting out across the region in the
southwest flow aloft.  Additional mixed precipitation is possible on
Wednesday as precipitation across the southern plains moves
northward into the southern sections of the forecast area.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 527 AM MDT Wed Mar 21 2018

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Winds will become breezy for
KGLD this afternoon then turn light tonight. KMCK will have light
winds through the TAF.


Issued at 531 AM MDT Wed Mar 21 2018

During the afternoon today relative humidity values will fall to
less than 20% for the same part of the forecast area as yesterday,
west of a Leoti to Goodland and Benkelman line. At the same time
southwest winds will become breezy, with gusts up to 30 MPH. (The
cloud cover this afternoon over the southwest half of the forecast
area may keep the wind gusts lower than forecast.) However winds
will decline during the latter half of the afternoon from west to
east. This will allow only a couple hours or so of breezy winds to
occur with the low relative humidity. The winds will fall to less
than 20 MPH by late afternoon.

Friday afternoon relative humidity values will fall at or close to
15% southwest of a Flagler to Burlington and Leoti line. Winds
will gust close to 30 MPH for this area as well. A watch will
likely be needed for this area in the future.




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